With shop price inflation showing no signs of slowing down heading into the final month of the year, the British Retail Consortium has predicted an “increasingly bleak” winter for retail.

Shop price inflation accelerated to 7.4% in November, up from 6.6% in October, according to the BRC-Nielsen IQ Shop Price Index. This was above the three-month average of 6.5% and was another record for inflation since the index started in 2005.

Food inflation was up to 12.4% in November, up from 11.6% in October. Fresh food accelerated to 14.3%, up from 13.3% in October. These were both category records for inflation.


Ambient food inflation accelerated to 10% in November, up from 9.4% in October – the fastest increase in ambient food prices on record. 

Non-food inflation accelerated to 4.8% in November, up from 4.1% in October. This was also a record for the category.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Winter looks increasingly bleak as pressures on prices continue unabated. Food prices have continued to soar, especially for meat, eggs and dairy, which have been hit by rocketing energy costs, and rising costs of animal feed and transport.

“Coffee prices also shot up last month as high input costs filtered through to price tags. Christmas gifting is also set to become more expensive than in previous years, with sports and recreation equipment seeing particularly high increases.

“While there are signs that cost pressures, and price rises, might start to ease in 2023, Christmas cheer will be dampened this year as households cut back on seasonal spending in order to prioritise the essentials.

“Retailers continue to do all they can to support their customers and ensure everyone can enjoy the festive season by fixing prices of many essentials, offering discounts to vulnerable groups, raising pay for their own people, and expanding their value ranges.”