Grocery price inflation returns to 5.2% in September

Like-for-like grocery price inflation dropped to 4.9% in August but has now returned to the 5.2% rate seen in July, at a time when consumer confidence is at its lowest level this year. 

This has coincided with a preference for buying products as part of deals. Spending on promotions represented 29.4% of take-home sales in September, the highest level since April. 

Take-home sales at the grocers grew by 4.1% over the four weeks versus the same period the year before. 

“Households are juggling a lot of different things when choosing what and where to buy their groceries. Inevitably, cost will be up towards the top of the list as price rises accelerate,” said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel. 

Meat prices, particularly for beef, have been increasing this year due to tighter supply in the UK, while coffee and chocolate have faced supply shortages globally. 

Worldpanel also found new regulations around deals on high-fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) products had to some extent already been prepared for by retailers, as multibuy deals on items covered by the legislation have dropped in recent years.

“Retailers have had this HFSS legislation in their sights for several years and they’ve been adapting, with consumer habits already shifting as a result. Three years ago, 28% of promotional spending on crisps was through multibuy offers, but it’s come right down since then to just 8% in the month to October 5,” said McKevitt. 

“There’s a similar story in the cereal aisle with promotional spending on multibuy deals down from 18% to 5% during the same time period,” he added.

Grocery market share

Online sales were up 12% compared to September 2024 and made up 12.7% of all grocery sales during the period. This is the highest online share seen since March 2022, when the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic were still being felt. 

That push towards online has also kept Ocado as Britain’s fastest-growing grocer. Sales at the retailer grew by 13.6% over the 12 weeks to October 5, 2025, versus the year before.

Discounter Lidl was the second-fastest growing grocer – but with a market share of 8.2%, stopped just short of overtaking Morrisons (8.3%). 

Neither of these retailers could match Tesco’s growth in market share, however. Britain’s biggest grocer extended its lead at the top of the table, with a market share of 28.3% during the 12 weeks. Its market share during the same period in 2024 was 27.6%.