Retail sales subdued as consumers wait for Black Friday deals

UK total retail sales for the four weeks covering October 5 to November 1 increased by 1.6% year on year, compared to 0.6% growth in October 2024, according to the latest BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor.

While there was growth year on year, it was below the 2025 average monthly growth of 2.1%.

Food sales jumped 3.5% year on year, compared to 2.6% growth for the corresponding period in 2024, which was flat against the 12-month average.

In-store non-food sales inched up just 0.1%, compared to a 1.1% decline in October 2024 and below the 12-month average of 1% growth. Online non-food sales were also flat at 0.0%.

The data showed the online penetration rate increased to 37.9% in October, above the 12-month average of 37.1%.

Separate data published today by Barclays showed declines in all seven measures of consumer and economic confidence it regularly tracks, the first time that this has happened since August 2022. The most significant decline was seen in how confident consumers were in their own household finances. 

Barclays also recorded its steepest year-on-year fall in retail card spending (0.5%) since November last year, with department stores (-7.8%) and discount retailers (-7.6%) reporting particularly strong falls. 

British Retail Consortium chief executive Helen Dickinson said many consumers delayed spending in the period as they awaited Black Friday deals to help manage their finances.

She said: “October was a subdued month, with the weakest growth since May. Many delayed spending, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler temperatures before buying toys, electronics and clothing. Furniture and other homeware fared better as people began preparing their homes ahead of family festive gatherings. Food sales also saw good growth, but this was mostly driven by higher prices rather than higher volumes.

“Retailers are counting on Black Friday to deliver a vital boost, but looming Budget decisions risk undermining fragile consumer confidence. With demand weak and business rates unresolved, retailers face hard choices on investment and recruitment. A business rates surtax on retail would put major stores and thousands of jobs at risk. The chancellor should use the Budget to remove this threat and help curb inflation for businesses and families.”

“Consumers and businesses alike appear to have adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach ahead of the autumn Budget. While this is generating some short-term headwinds, it could position the UK economy for a rebound once the uncertainty lifts, potentially setting the stage for a strong festive season,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist, Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management.