UK retail sales fall in October after three months of growth

Retail sales volumes fell by 0.7% in October, following a rise of 0.1% in September 2024, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) retail sales data.

However, over the year to October 2024, sales volumes rose by 2.4% and when compared with their pre-pandemic level in February 2020, volumes were down by 1.5%.

When compared with the three months to July 2024, sales volumes increased by 0.8% in the three months to October.

Non-food stores sales volume which includes department stores, clothing, household and other non-food stores, fell by 1.4% in October 2024, following a rise of 2.3% in September as retailers across a range of industries suggested that low consumer confidence and uncertainty around the Budget announcement affected sales.

Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “After a few months of positive growth, October’s retail sales figures paint a more subdued picture, with Halloween festivities failing to continue the upward sales trajectory. Mild and dry weather, paired with pre-Budget uncertainty, meant that consumers opted out of shopping for seasonal clothing and chose instead to rein back their spending in the run-up to the biggest shopping months of the year.

“With Black Friday on the horizon, and Christmas trade having started earlier than last year, there is some optimism that November’s sales will improve, particularly if bonfire night socialising provides an additional spark of spending.

“While sales of big ticket items continue to be low, the discounting period may be the much-needed boost for retailers looking to move stock and for those consumers who have been delaying more significant purchases.

“Black Friday and the ‘golden quarter’ more generally do not come without their operational challenges, and with the chancellor’s Budget proving challenging for many retailers now facing increased costs, some caution will remain amidst the festive spirit.

“The hope amongst retailers will be that consumers feel ready to release their purse strings in this period. So far, there has been a disconnect between consumer confidence and spending – and bridging this gap will rely on retail businesses providing the best value and shopping experiences both in-store and online in their busiest two months of trading.”