ONS retail sales data delayed by two weeks for ‘quality assurance’

In a statement released on Tuesday, the ONS said that it was publishing the latest data on September 5 and that the release was “being postponed to allow for further quality assurance.” It also apologised for any inconvenience caused.

It is the latest setback for the statistics authority, which in June was described as having “deepseated” issues in a government-commissioned review. The chief economist of the Bank of England raised concerns last year about “ongoing problems” with the headline labour force survey. 

The BRC also added its voice to the critics in May this year when economist Harvir Dhillon wrote in a post that “With official data patchy, late, or under revision, decision-makers need alternative sources they can rely on in real-time.”

Commenting on the new delay, Dhillon said: “The delay in the ONS retail sales release makes it harder to get a timely view of the health of the UK retail sector. While we welcome quality assurance, ongoing issues with data reliability and seasonal adjustment methods mean that the value of these figures for policymakers and industry is limited until confidence in the methodology is restored.”

Retail sales data in particular has come under industry critique in the past, mainly due to the complicated way in which data is adjusted to reflect seasonal factors. 

Richard Lim, CEO of Retail Economics, says that food sales data has consistently been pessimistic compared to other industry data sources, while the non-food sales figures by comparison have looked “overly optimistic”.

“It seems to be detached from the reality that we’re seeing through other data and through the conversations we are having with retailers,” he adds. 

The latest retail sales data showed a 0.9% month-on-month rise in sales volumes in June, following a 2.8% fall in May and a 1.6% rise in April.

Retail sales are among the indicators used by the Bank of England and the Treasury in economic decision making, so questions about their reliability are a significant issue. 

“This is the latest in a string of problems with official data over the past year. We’ve previously raised the alarm about how volatile the retail sales data have become in recent years, so it’s possible the latest problems relate to that. But the fact that the situation has escalated to the extent that the ONS can’t go through with the publication will further dent confidence in the reliability of the data, said Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics.