Retail sales in December inch up due to the late Black Friday trading period, but the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warns of possible falling sales in 2025.
Total UK retail sales increased 3.2% year on year in December compared to a growth of 1.9% in the same month in 2023, according to the BRC and KPMG sales monitor.
For 2024 overall, total retail sales in the UK edged up 0.7% from the previous year. Food growth climbed 3.3% during the year, while non-food declined 1.5%.
Sales grew 0.4% year on year over the golden quarter period in the three months to December.
Food sales grew 1.7% year on year in December, against a growth of 6.3% over the same month in 2023. This was below the three-month average growth of 2.1%.
Non-food sales increased 4.4% in the same period, compared with a 2.1% drop in December 2023. This was above the three-month average fall of 1.1%.
In-store non-food sales inched up 0.4% year on year, following a 2.9% fall in December 2023, while online non-food sales jumped 11.1% in December, compared to a decline of 0.8% in 2023.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Following a challenging year marked by weak consumer confidence and difficult economic conditions, the crucial ‘golden quarter’ failed to give 2024 the send-off retailers were hoping for.
“Non-food was particularly hard-hit, with sales contracting from the previous year. Food sales fared better over the Christmas period, ticking up slightly from the previous year, meanwhile beauty products, jewellery and electricals made a strong showing under the tree this year.
“While we project sales growth to average 1.2% in 2025, this is below the projected shop price inflation of 1.8%. This means volumes are likely to fall this year, all while the regulatory and tax burden on retailers will increase costs by £7bn from rising National Insurance Contributions, increasing national living wage, confirmed in the Budget, and new packaging levies.
“With little hope of covering these costs through higher sales, retailers will likely push up prices and cut investment in stores and jobs, harming our high streets and the communities that rely on them. Government must find ways to mitigate this, so that retailers can invest more in growth and jobs, starting with its planned business rates reform where it must ensure that no shop ends up paying higher rates than they do already.”
KPMG UK head of consumer, retail and leisure Linda Ellett added: “With Black Friday falling as late as it did, this year it was part of the Christmas shopping season even more so than in previous years.
“December, coupled with Black Friday week at the end of November, delivered welcome sales growth for retailers. Computing and mobile phones, and beauty products, particularly saw sizeable jumps in sales both in-store and online, with the likes of AI-enabled tech and beauty advent calendars boosting festive takings.
“However, sales growth during the golden quarter of October to December was minimal, reflecting the ongoing careful management of many household budgets during a time when many costs remain at a heightened level compared to past years.
“In 2025, we will see retailers increasingly utilising customer data and AI technology to deliver increased personalisation when it comes to targeting products and offers to their current, and potential, customers.”
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