Fashion to deliver strongest sales growth of any category this Christmas

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Despite the doom and gloom surrounding the economy, clothing sales are likely to deliver the strongest year-on-year growth of any UK retail category, according to new Christmas forecast data.

Shared exclusively with Retail Week, data from AlixPartners’ 2025 UK Retail Christmas Sales Forecast projects that fashion sales will rise 3.8% year on year (adjusted for inflation) throughout November and December to more than £13bn. This is compared to a 3% year-on-year decline for the same period last year.

By contrast, AlixPartners projects that Christmas food sales – which are forecast to account for a larger share of festive spending in terms of value (£38bn compared to £13bn for fashion) – will grow just 0.5% year on year when adjusted for inflation.

This would only mark a slight improvement for grocery sales, with food sales dipping 0.01% in November and December 2024.

As part of the report, AlixPartners’ survey of 2,000 UK customers on festive period spending found that only 11% of respondents plan to spend more on Christmas meals in the coming months.

By contrast, 19% said they’ll be spending less, a net fall of 8%.

Total UK retail sales for the November and December period are predicted to see a “muted but positive year-on-year growth”, with AlixPartners forecasting a 4.9% rise in sales – falling to 1.9% when adjusted for inflation.

AlixPartners EMEA head of retail Matt Clark said: “Fashion and grocery tell two very different stories this Christmas. Fashion has faced a perfect storm this year – declining high-street footfall, rising employment costs, and increased wholesale and production expenses have all weighed on performance. Yet, opportunity is emerging through the rapid expansion of sales channels, from social media and AI-driven platforms to brand apps, click-and-collect, and in-store. Retailers that embrace an omnichannel strategy and meet consumers wherever they shop will be best positioned to capture share this festive season.

“Grocery, by contrast, is all about value. The sector continues to grapple with price inflation, the impact of GLP-1/health trend, and growing concerns around food waste – all of which are prompting shoppers to buy less. Many are trading down to own-brand labels, with some ranges being ‘premiumised’ as consumers seek affordable indulgence. Grocers that sharpen their pricing and reinforce value will stand out as we enter the golden quarter.”