Card spend inches up as inflation and conflict dampen consumer confidence

The latest data from the Barclays Consumer Spend report for February showed that card spending grew just 1% in the period between March 3 to March 6, with four out of five UK adults now concerned about the war’s impact on inflation, the cost of fuel and energy, and the potential to disrupt or increase the cost of international travel.

Overall consumer spending in the period remained muted, although Barclays noted that non-essential spend reached a six-month high of 1.8% in February, while spend on entertainment climbed 9.9%.

As a result of the ongoing global economic ructions, confidence in the UK economy dipped two percentage points in the last week to 23%. However, for the first time since July 2025, a greater proportion of consumers reported feeling more confident in the strength of the UK economy than the global economy.

Over 80% of respondents said they were concerned about the impact of tensions in the Middle East on fuel costs, 81% on energy bills and 78% on inflation. Consumers were also worried about the conflict adding cost to food prices (76%), supply chain disruption (70%), economic slowdown (69%) and travel disruption (59%).

Some 46% of respondents said they were taking action in response, including making efforts to cut energy consumption (16%), reduce discretionary spending (13%), build up their savings (10%) and delay major spending decisions (10%).

Barclays chief UK economist Jack Meaning said: “This timely insight into consumers’ reaction to the evolving situation in the Middle East highlights perfectly the economic risks for the UK if the conflict doesn’t find a way to de-escalate in short order. The start of 2026 had brought positive signs of growth and improving consumer sentiment. A new, prolonged, bout of uncertainty risks snuffing that out before it has had a chance to really get going.”

Barclays head of retail Karen Johnson said: “February’s data highlights the careful balancing act shoppers face in navigating rising costs amidst global uncertainty. While we’re seeing a continued appetite to spend on categories such as entertainment and wellness – obtaining value for money and savvy spending will remain a strong focus in the months ahead.”