Consumer confidence on the up thanks to football, heatwaves and a new prime minister

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index rose six points in July, with all five measures up compared to last month’s figures.

People’s personal financial situation increased by two points to -8 in July, a point lower than the same time last year. Forecasts show the index should reach one in the next 12 months.

The general economic situation has also improved in the past year, rising 10 points to -39, with expectations for it to increase to -28 next year.

The major purchase index rose eight points to -12, three points higher than July 2025. 

The savings index also increased seven points to 27, but this is not included in the overall index score.

GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy said: “Hot on the heels of the summer heatwaves, July has delivered a wave of optimism. This month’s six-point jump to -17 marks the largest increase in consumer confidence since November 2023. 

“The lion’s share of the improvement is in the economy, with a 10-point advance in how consumers view the past year and an eight-point gain for the next 12 months. Motivations to make major purchases are also up eight points. The sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new prime minister surely accounts for some of this bounce. 

“There were also hopes at the start of July that the Middle East conflict might stabilise and bring UK fuel prices down. The feel-good factor of the FIFA World Cup will have reinforced sentiment too. However, July’s improved Overall Index Score remains within the narrow range seen since the end of 2023, and it is a decade since the headline score was in positive territory. 

“For the ‘Burnham bounce’ to be sustainable and boost consumer confidence, it will require consistent delivery by the refreshed UK government against deep cost-of-living challenges and persistent low economic growth.”