The pandemic has had a massive impact on our industry, perhaps greater than many others. But it can’t be blamed entirely for the way things are unwinding on our high streets and in our shopping centres.

While the virus has provided a convenient whipping boy for politicians and business leaders, most of the problems blamed on it were already there long before the infection broke out in Wuhan.  

The pandemic and the national response to it have merely brought forward outcomes that were already inevitable and provided a long-overdue wake-up call.

The commercial property proposition is well past its sell-by date. Landlords still hold out for unrealistic terms, while developers and investors are carried along on the momentum of projects that were conceived in a different climate.  

They may have gained some respite as rates rebates and furloughs temporarily lifted some financial pressures from their tenants’ shoulders, but it was only ever going to be a brief reprieve. One must wonder who these rescue packages were most welcomed by – retailers or their landlords?

“Bolt-on remedies have never solved these problems; a more permanent solution is required”

Pressure is now being brought to bear on the chancellor to extend his supportive measures and even offer a rent relief scheme. But no one can survive on handouts and loans forever. Bolt-on remedies have never solved these problems; a more permanent solution is required.

If anything, the hiatus in trade forced by the lockdown has given some high street operators the perspective they may not have had while they were concentrating more on keeping multiple balls in the air pre-Covid. 

Many have realised that there is life after the high street, especially as consumers are pushed inexorably towards the internet – firstly because there was no other choice, but latterly because they want to avoid the perceived risks of returning to real-world shopping.

There were already predictions of online retail grabbing a 50% share of the market by 2030. The impact of Covid accelerated that, with web-based sales rising from around 20% to over 33% at the height of lockdown and only falling to around 30% since.   

With no sign of it returning to pre-virus levels, the prospect of reaching that 50% figure sooner rather than later is ever more likely.  As a result, more retailers have come to see online as not just a lifeboat, but as a mother ship sailing into the mother lode.

This will be something felt more acutely by larger companies than smaller owner/operator stores, perhaps giving an advantage to more agile independent retailers.

“We’ve seen humble shop staff elevated to essential workers, but as furlough schemes roll back, how many of them will find they still have a job to go to?”

If empty high street properties are also more readily repurposed into domestic dwellings, we may see a resurgence of inner-city stores to serve this new population. Those who have stuck it out in town centres may then reap the rewards of their persistence.  

Retail’s impact on society is something that has already been brought home to many who previously took it for granted. We’ve seen humble shop staff elevated to the level of essential workers, but as furlough schemes start to roll back, how many of them will find they still have a job to go to?  

Frontline retail accounts for around 3 million employees, with many of those working part-time, such as students and single parents. What will the impact be on our circular economy if shop staff and workers in wholesale, import and other associated trades start to lose disposable income after the government removes the support?

All these concerns and others, not least the looming chaos of a no-deal Brexit, are going to be with us for the foreseeable future. But they are the catalyst, not the cause.  

If there’s anything positive to come out of this terrible pandemic, it may be that finally the government is shaken out of its complacency to deal with retail’s long-term endemic problems, rather than just applying yet more economic sticking plasters.