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It’s easy to jump on the squeezed middle band-wagon as we look at this morning’s headline news from Sainsbury’s… but the finer detail of their performance clearly reveals that it’s headline stats are mainly driven by market conditions and their enforced participation in the price wars. Looking at the finer detail reveals clues of an, at worst, satisfactory performance over this key trading period in our opinion: footfall was up it seems, it’s even possible that Sainsbury’s themselves were the “trade-up” for some new seasonal shoppers wishing to treat themselves at Christmas: turkeys, premium own label and Prosecco seem to have found themselves in many more baskets this year vs. last. And don’t forget… last year was Sainsbury’s self-proclaimed “best Christmas ever”, so a hard act to follow. Price deflation will always make life difficult when it comes to value growth… but the good news is that their shoppers don’t seem to have deserted them in droves in pursuit of discounter bargains. We know from our own research that most shoppers weren’t planning to push the boat out any more this year than last as they’re still feeling the pinch, so for Sainsbury’s to have maintained / increased footfall and maintained volume sales, as well as seeing value growth in key GM categories, is a more solid performance than the headline suggests.

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