Tesco is forecast to grow faster than its three main global rivals – Walmart, Metro and Carrefour – with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% between 2011 and 2015, according to new research from IGD.

Despite this, Walmart will still be the world’s largest retailer with sales of €386,721m by 2015.

This is nearly triple the value of Carrefour’s sales of €133,984m over the same period, while Tesco’s turnover will be €98,292m and Metro’s €81,118m.

Growth in China, Turkey and India will prove the “key element in driving Tesco’s long-term growth and returns”, IGD said.

Walmart, with a CAGR of 4.85%, will deliver over half its sales growth outside the US by 2015, as Latin America and Africa rise up the list of priorities. China will also be an important growth area.

Walmart will continue to develop its global e-commerce strategy, which includes traditional online retailing, as well as mobile and social commerce, IGD said.

IGD forecasts CAGR of 5% per year for Metro between 2011 and 2015. Domestic performance is expected to increase by just 1% so cash and carry growth in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania as well as opening more stores in Indonesia will be key.

New Carrefour chief executive Georges Plassat will take the helm of a business determined to support domestic growth with a greater focus on price, IGD said.

Carrefour has put the wider roll-out of its Planet hypermarkets on hold to re-assess the costs of remodelling these stores, but revitalising the performance of this format will remain a top priority for Plassat. Growth in Latin America and China will be a priority.

IGD chief executive Joanne Denney-Finch said: “The key to growth for these global retailers will be presence in the right markets at the right time. The domestic markets remain critical for Carrefour, Metro, Tesco and Walmart, but they are also increasingly relying on emerging markets to sustain strong growth.

“International sales will be driven by a focus on emerging markets, such as China, Latin America, Turkey and Indonesia. The top four global retailers are forecast to achieve double-digit growth in many of these fast developing regions over the next three years.”