Grocery inflation eases as Lidl leapfrogs Morrisons as fifth-largest grocer

Like-for-like grocery prices rose by 3.1% in the four weeks to May 17, which was the slowest rate of increase since December 2025, according to the latest grocery market share data from Worldpanel by Numerator.

In the period, take-home sales growth at the grocers increased by 1.5%.

Head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, Fraser McKevitt, said: “The easing in the rate of inflation is welcome news for shoppers who have been grappling with warnings of a hike in food prices due to the impact of the war in the Middle East.

“This follows the UK government’s announcement on a plan to further reduce import tariffs by £150m on a range of food categories. While further details are expected this week, this would equate to just £5 per household, with the average annual shopping bill for food and drink, excluding alcohol, totalling £4,087.”

In the period, 30.3% of sales included a promotional deal, compared to 28.4% a year ago. Spending on promoted items rose 9.5% year on year, while full-price spending was virtually flat, growing by only 0.1%.

While the UK is currently sweltering in a heatwave, the period covers the start of the month and the May Day Bank Holiday weekend, which featured grey skies and cooler temperatures.

At the start of the month, shoppers opted for soup over sunscreen as the volumes of summer essentials like suncare and ice cream dropped 28% and 3% respectively.

“May was a tale of two bank holidays,” said McKevitt. “The cool start kept summer categories in the shade, with unseasonable weather hanging on longer than expected. But with record temperatures over the second bank holiday, we expect to see a significant uplift in spending on summer essentials like BBQ, suncare and ice cream as the month comes to a close.”

Big four no more

After a sustained period of consistent growth, Lidl this month finally overtook former big-four grocer Morrisons, to become the fifth-largest UK grocer by market share.

Lidl reached a new record high market share of 8.6% in the 12 weeks to May 16, up by 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Twenty-five years ago, Numerator said, the retailer accounted for just 1.4% of the market, well behind “long gone” names such as Safeway, Somerfield and Kwiksave.

By comparison, while Morrisons registered 1.3% growth, its market share now sits at 8.3% – down from 8.4% in the same period in 2025.

Ocado continued to be the fastest-growing grocer with a 10.2% jump in sales, although this was the slowest rate of growth for the pureplay grocer since July 2024. Market share in the period for Ocado was just 0.1 percentage points higher at 2.1%, while overall online grocery sales rose 7.2% for the period.

Sales at Tesco jumped 3.2%, with market share rising to 28.2%. Sainsbury’s market share inched up 0.1 percentage points, with a 3.1% increase in sales.

Asda sales dipped 3%, with a market share of 11.5%, ahead of Aldi at 10.8%.

Waitrose sales were up 3%, while Marks & Spencer grocery sales increased over the 12 weeks by 9.3%, while Co-op sales inched down 0.1 percentage points, arresting a sustained period of decline.