As the coronavirus lockdown continues into its fourth week, there are signs that shopper demand and retailer supply is beginning to stabilise. Many retailers have now relaxed their item limits for customers shopping online and in-store.

However, data from Edge by Ascential shows there remain spikes in demand and resulting unavailability in certain categories, as well as significant variation between how each retailer is faring.

With sunshine forecast over the Easter weekend, frozen barbecue meats and tinned goods saw a spike in demand and there was a peak in unavailable products across these categories.

Coronavirus average out of stocks

Last week, average out-of-stock levels at the UK grocers reached a high of 18.4% and ended the week at 14.1%. This compares to a high of 21.9% the previous week. Average out-of-stock levels for the UK grocers before the coronavirus pandemic stood at around 1.3%.

Despite remaining highly in demand, cereals and kitchen towel saw an improvement in stock levels during the week, which was strongly influenced by lower out-of-stock levels at Morrisons and Waitrose.

The frozen burgers and meatballs category saw a peak in unavailable products in the week leading up to Easter, indicating that shoppers stocked up on these as they planned barbecues at home over the sunny bank holiday weekend.

In other categories, it appears there was little change. The percentage of beer, lager and cider out of stock over the last week grew by just 1.4% and there was a 1.6% increase in out-of-stock levels of chilled burgers to 21.4%. 

Coronavirus top 20 categories

By retailer, Tesco has seen its levels of unavailability grow since April 9. This rise has been across many categories, in particular kitchen towel, toilet paper, dry pasta and tinned veg.

Morrisons again had the greatest variability. Out-of-stock levels for the retailer peaked on April 9 and dropped for two days but have subsequently been rising as the retailer struggles to fulfil demand.

The percentage of unavailable products at Waitrose fell by more than 5% over the last six days. This was largely the result of improvements in the availability of coffee and frozen foods.

Coronavirus unavailability by grocer

Overall, the huge efforts being made by the grocery retailers and their suppliers are continuing to ease the situation. However, shopper habits and stock levels will take some time to return to normal levels. It appears that nervousness among shoppers means people are still stocking up on key ambient store cupboard items such as baked beans and dried pasta at unprecedented levels, which leaves retailers scrambling to replenish supplies.