From surprisingly strong in-store results to the rise of the indies, shopper behaviour this Black Friday has produced some key lessons for retailers ahead of Christmas

As the dust settles on Cyber Monday, a picture of Black Friday weekend is beginning to take shape. 

Retailers are reporting stronger than expected results, dispelling the idea that the cost-of-living crisis would lead to a ‘Bleak Friday’ instead. But what does the weekend’s activity tell us about shoppers – and what might it mean for all-important Christmas trading?

Stores perform strongly 

Shopping centre with Christmas displays

Shopping centre football bounced up 17% on Black Friday

Footfall data from Springboard showed all physical retail destinations outperformed 2021 across the entire weekend, even with Black Friday becoming an increasingly digital phenomenon during the pandemic. 

Across high streets, shopping centres and retail parks, footfall was 9.3% higher than for the same period in 2021. Footfall across the locations also rose by 3.2% from the week before.

One of the surprising winners was shopping centres, which have struggled to attract shoppers for much of the year. Shopping centre footfall was up 16.8% on Black Friday itself.

Springboard marketing and insight director Diane Wehrle said customers are increasingly seeing Black Friday as “the first weekend of Christmas shopping” and predicted the strong trading over this period could precede a dip in the first few weeks of December.

“There’s normally something of a lull after Black Friday but it could be more pronounced this year. It’ll probably be fairly quiet over the next few weeks and then people will probably make a push in that final week before Christmas, particularly if they think that by waiting they can get some last-minute discounting,” she added. 

Ever more online

Online Christmas shopping

Shoppers are looking to ‘buy well’ during Sales events

Despite a better-than-expected performance in stores, the data so far shows that online spending was more prevalent, as it has been over the last few years since the pandemic.

Marketing benchmarking site Wunderkind data showed consumer web traffic peaked at a 49% week-on-week increase on Black Friday and 16.6% year on year. 

The uptick in online shopping continued across the weekend, up 22% on Saturday and 26% higher on Sunday, compared to corresponding days in 2021. Cyber Monday sales were 25% higher year on year. 

While web traffic and sales were up year-on-year, the cost-of-living crisis reared its head in other ways, with the data showing smaller average basket sizes and a mixed sales picture.

Revenues fell 0.72% year on year on Black Friday but were up 1.3% and 7.9% on Saturday and Sunday, highlighting retailers’ need to extend promotions across a longer discounting period. 

Savvy chief executive Catherine Shuttleworth put this down to customers overwhelmingly looking for value due to the economic environment and going early on Christmas spending.

She said: “Shoppers are looking for value, so they are being mindful about who they spend with and what they buy. Cashing in loyalty points; saving up vouchers. It’s not about buying cheap; it’s about buying well and with value and discount baked in.”

Rise of the indies

The Shambles, York

Customers are increasingly supporting independent retailers on Black Friday

Over the years, Black Friday has gone from being an event for larger, national retailers to taking in brands of all sizes.

Among the big players, Boots.com reported its busiest-ever Black Friday in terms of sales, up 18% year on year, while sales in stores were up 17%.

At one point on Black Friday, John Lewis said 5.5 products were being ordered every second with tech and fashion categories performing particularly well. 

At smaller retailers, sustainable womenswear brand Nobody’s Child reported a 151% year-on-year increase in gross sales compared to the Black Friday weekend last year, with over 50% of sales coming after 6pm on the day.

Shopify said the number of consumers buying from independent merchants on its channel grew 23.2% year on year, with an average basket size of £66.28, up from £63.09 the previous year. The strongest performing categories were apparel, accessories, health, beauty, and home and garden 

Signifying that Londoners in particular may look to support independent retailers this Christmas, the capital was Shopify’s top-selling city around the globe. 

“This year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday showed us once again that consumers are voting with their wallets to support the independent brands they love,” said Shopify president Harley Finklestein.

“We saw record levels of shopping happening across all channels this weekend, proving businesses that meet their customers where they are, whether that’s online or in-person, will earn their loyalty in return.”

New year, same problems 

While the Black Friday weekend was better than expected for retailers, the outlook for Christmas and 2023 looks bleaker. 

The general consensus is that shoppers will already have done a lot of Christmas shopping during the Black Friday promotions period. With many retailers already facing some liquidity issues and weaker-than-expected sales in October and November, Black Friday promotions were a way to move excess stock while also bringing Christmas shopping forward

Many retailers will now try to get out of discounting and back to full price in December. But as costs continue to rise, it may be impossible to wean shoppers off of promotions.

Looking to 2023, an extended period of promotion heading into Christmas could also affect Boxing Day and New Year Sales. 

“Typically, they offer an opportunity to secure bargains on big-ticket items but this year, we are likely to see retailers use the sales as an opportunity to sell old stock to get ready for spring and summer 2023,” said EY UK and Ireland retail lead Silvia Rindone. 

“Continuous Sales mean there is also a danger that consumers suffer ‘Sales fatigue’ and become accustomed to discounts – often postponing purchases until the next sale arrives and only buying when they see deep discounts. In response, retailers can push the ‘normal’ prices up, resulting in poor value perceptions, which drives customers to start looking elsewhere.”

Although retailers may have avoided a Bleak Friday, they could now be facing a chilly Christmas and an even colder new year.