It’s not that long ago that Black Friday, the day after ThanksGiving – was something of a mystery to British shoppers. But the online shopping revolution and rise of multinational retailers has quickly brought this shopping frenzy over the Atlantic and now you would be hard pressed to find someone who hasn’t heard of the term.

It was more than four years ago when Amazon first started to offer Black Friday discounts in Britain. Over the years its promotions have become bigger and better and other retailers have quickly started to follow suit.

But 2014 was the year that Black Friday really hit critical mass with UK shoppers spending £1m every three minutes, resulting in total sales of more than £800m. The knock-on effect, however, was ruthless: 2014 had the weakest December sales growth since 2008 of just 1%, and online sales achieved their lowest ever growth of just 5%.

Last year’s frenzy shocked many unprepared retailers who were caught out by stock issues, crowd control and crashing websites

For many retailers, Black Friday discounting consolidated a lot of the trading they would have traditionally done over the run-up weeks to Christmas, placing an inordinate strain on themselves, causing countless customer service issues. Last year’s frenzy shocked many unprepared retailers who were caught out by stock issues, crowd control, crashing websites and a parcel delivery network that crumbled under the strain.

The day was also depicted by some rather unsavoury scenes in the media when police were called to supermarkets around the country as crowds broke out into utter chaos over cut-price TVs. The Black Friday backlash has inevitably lead many retailers to question its appeal, with several key players announcing their intentions to bypass the event altogether.

Asda was one of the first to boycott, despite being one of the retailers who first introduced the day to the UK, claiming that it would prefer to spread out the £26m it is investing in Christmas savings across the holiday season, rather than cramming it into one day. Chief executive Andy Clarke had said that during the promotion, sales in its core food business actually fell.

Despite the backlash, Black Friday sales are still expected to set the record for the UK’s highest online sales total in a single day and more than three-quarters of UK retailers are expected to hold a Black Friday promotion, according to Barclays Christmas Survey. “There is a definite element of uncertainty and unpredictability but it’s here to stay,” says Dixons chief marketing officer Gary Booker.

After the incredible levels of shopping activity recorded last year, the countdown to Black Friday is inescapable. Using Big Data Labs – our real-time ecommerce tracker taken from the thousands of ecommerce transactions that pass through our platform every day – we’ve observed an obvious decrease in the rate of growth in online traffic during the first half of November this year, suggesting that UK shoppers have got the forthcoming Black Friday firmly in their sights.

As the consumer appetite for Black Friday increases, we’re expecting to see over twice as many online transactions this year

As more retailers begin to announce their Black Friday deals, we’re seeing online transactions level out as shoppers start to hold back to save for a big splurge over the Black Friday weekend. This suggests we’re likely to see a large spike of activity at midnight on Black Friday, surpassing previous records.

As the consumer appetite for Black Friday increases, we’re expecting to see over twice as many online transactions this year, making it a huge opportunity that retailers simply can’t afford to ignore.

While Black Friday will inevitably provide retailers with a spike in sales and a chance to grow the brand, businesses will need to ensure they are delivering a faultless end-to-end customer experience or risk losing out to competitors.

It will be interesting to see how the day unfolds and whether our predictions are right. Create your own reports and watch ecommerce transactions as they happen at www.bigdatalabs.co.uk.

  • Chris Harle is chief financial officer of PCA Predict