As I sat down to write this column it dawned on me that next month is my 10th anniversary as a Retail Week columnist.

Looking back over my past scribblings has been a nostalgic diversion and a lesson in how much retail has changed in such a relatively short period of time.

For example, the Retail Week Top 50 for 2009 included such absent friends as Comet, BHS, Thresher and Phones 4u. At number 20 was Woolworths, even though it collapsed the same year. Arcadia and Debenhams were at 17 and 18 respectively and are still with us, but for how long remains to be seen.

“The continued resilience of the independent sector has revitalised many a run-down area”

The internet has probably been the most seismic disruptor over the past 10 years, but in 2009 we still weren’t sure where it fitted in. Phrases such as omnichannel and big data were on everyone’s lips, along with less popular terms such as ‘reverse logistics’. Today, AI is the thing we’re all talking about, or should be.

In 2009, I was celebrating 15 years on the high street, not knowing that six years later I’d become one of those online pure-players I’d previously been so dismissive of. Like me, many retailers were pushed into the threads of the web as bricks and mortar became synonymous with ball and chain.

As I’ve complained numerous times in these pages, the retail property model has eaten itself, and many a good retailer has been on the menu.

Debt burden

Along with spiralling property overheads I’ve also speculated about the impact of the staggering level of debt many large retailers carry. In 2012 I asked “how many of these paper tigers would survive the flames”.

Both these factors came to a devastating confluence when Thomas Cook finally hit the buffers. Not only was it carrying the dead weight of 560 stores in an industry dominated by online, it was also drowning in a biblical level of debt.

Debt burden is now a common cause of collapse for many a bloated retail giant. Debenhams seems to spend more time refinancing than it does retailing, as does House of Fraser. I doubt many retailers had even heard of a CVA 10 years ago; now it’s old news.

I predict that the latest wheeze to keep the wolf from the door – debt/equity swaps – will become just as ubiquitous in coming years, raising questions about just who will really own some retailers in the future, assuming they have one.

The introduction of an internet tax looks more likely every year and is something else I’ve warned about. Inspired by the likes of Amazon, which has also become synonymous with taxation controversy, the final irony is that it is now opening physical stores.

I expect this to be little more than a dalliance, like its fabled drone delivery service that I still remain unconvinced about. Amazon doesn’t need stores, it’s just that it may eventually be the only retailer that can afford them.

There are bright spots on the high street though: the continued resilience of the independent sector, which has revitalised many a run-down area. That may be something that could save physical retail in these spaces if property managers take a more long-term, enlightened approach.

The upsurge in ethical retail is also encouraging for those of us who see a future world where consumption will have to be balanced with its impact on the planet and all its inhabitants.

But after 25 years as a retailer and 10 years as a writer, I may have become a bit cynical. Some would say I always was! But the one thing I can state with some certainty is our industry will never stand still.

Wherever we end up in 10 years’ time, we’ll still be selling stuff to people who will want to buy it. I hope I’ll still be part of that and still able to write about it. See you in 2029 to find out.