In little more than a week’s time, retail’s traditional Golden Quarter begins, but it would take more than three wise men to work out how it may go this year.

A successful Christmas selling season can rarely have been so important for retailers after the forced closures of lockdown. 

At the same time, rarely has the outlook for peak been as unsettled as it is now, when the virus is wreaking new havoc and threatens more and worse to come.

The restoration of some semblance of normality, such as being able to eat out again or an uptick in staff returning to offices – even if slowly-slowly – now looks as if it could be in jeopardy, particularly after the new restrictions announced by Boris Johnson.

We can’t seem to get through a week without local Covid concerns leading to restrictions in more parts of the UK, from Solihull to Sunderland. And now the whole country faces, at minimum, lockdown-lite – which will probably last six months.

The ‘circuit break’, limiting pub and restaurant opening hours, making face masks mandatory for retail staff and even bringing in the prospect of military back-up as police focus on enforcing Covid rules, came as concerns mount about a rising number of cases.

The increase in cases is also fuelling public anger and fear because of the unavailability of testing, which is adding to the febrile atmosphere.

Uncharted territory

It is against that background of uncertainty and worry, not of festive cheer and anticipation, that retailers prepare for Christmas.

Reading the crystal ball is harder than ever, whether it is working out likely trading patterns online or in store, or in food or general merchandise.

As far as online is concerned, how will Black Friday play out this year? Will it be more important than ever as consumers have become more used to shopping online? Will it pull forward spending more than usual, sparking compensatory price-cutting as sales dry up afterwards? How will online capacity, already massively increased during the outbreak, cope?

“Will shoppers, concerned by the prospect of joblessness, watch the pennies and seek out bargains?”

Will shoppers, concerned by the prospect of joblessness, watch the pennies and seek out bargains? Or, after such a dismal year, will they be determined to pull out all the stops and have a big celebration with all the trimmings? 

Will extended families and groups of friends avoid mixing too much? And, if so, will it be smaller Christmas dinner sizes in demand rather than whole turkeys?

And what will the ongoing restrictions such as social distancing mean for managing the seasonal rush to stores – assuming that it happens? One senior retailer mused to me that 24-hour opening might have to be introduced simply to process Christmas customer numbers. Whether that is now even a possibility must be open to question.

Playing to their strengths

It’s a massive headache. No wonder grocers’ alcohol sales soared during lockdown, and retailers may feel like turning to the bottle again as they ponder the months to come.

But amid all the uncertainty, retailers have two weapons at their disposal that should help them to do as well as possible: product and convenience.

Both were deployed together at the height of the pandemic. Food boxes, pioneered by Morrisons and adopted by other retailers, proved a great success. From the original collection of essentials, all sorts of variants appeared, from vegan boxes to fresh flowers, as retailers curated their ranges for easy delivery and to make things simpler for shoppers.

“Bundling product together for one simple delivery gives retailers the chance both to sell more items and to create efficiencies”

It was a smart idea, and one open to retailers of a wide variety of products, whether that is toys, confectionery, entertainment or beauty. Why not fashion, too? Apparel could be packaged up to include partywear suitable for the occasion, along with the loungewear and activewear that have been among the biggest sellers across fashion retail during the pandemic.

Bundling product together for one simple delivery gives retailers the chance both to sell more items and to create efficiencies.

Last week, Next chief executive Lord Wolfson described the health emergency as having been “expensive and miserable” – the challenge now for retailers is to deploy all the art and science at their disposal to ensure Christmas doesn’t turn out that way for them too.