During past recessions, consumers have snapped up small luxuries, such as lipstick, to make themselves feel better. But with face masks making a lipstick uptick unlikely, which treats will shoppers indulge in now?

  • With the introduction of mandatory face covering, when it comes to beauty lipstick is off the menu and eyes will be the new focus. 
  • Skincare products designed to restore a natural ‘glow’ and imply good health are also proving popular.
  • While people spend more time at home, sales of potted plants are on the rise as consumers look to give their spaces a lift at little expense.
  • And while holidays and restaurant visits are fewer, consumers are bringing more exotic flavours into the kitchen and RTD cocktails to their al fresco get-togethers.

When times are tough consumers don’t simply stop shopping, but instead, trade down from big-ticket items to small indulgences to cheer themselves up. We’ve all been there, feeling a bit gloomy and hoping some retail therapy will raise our spirits, whether that be a posh box of chocolates or a new outfit. 

During tough economic climes, consumers traditionally snap up little luxuries – such as lipstick – to give them an instant pick-me-up, otherwise known as the lipstick effect.

However, with mandatory face masks very much part of our new normal, shoppers will be turning to other categories to give them a boost during any post-Covid recession.

Instead of seeing the boost it did during the 2008 recession – where L’Oréal reported sales growth of 5.3% – lipstick could instead be left on the shelves for months to come. Mintel beauty analyst Roshida Khanom says: “The segment as a whole will struggle as it becomes tricky to use lip products with face masks.”

So what are the products that shoppers will rush to buy during the Covid-driven downturn?

Lashings of lashes

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Lashes have been hailed “the new lipstick” as the classic make-up item becomes redundant under a face mask

Lipstick sales may suffer, but shoppers will still be investing in some beauty products. With half of our faces covered up with masks, it is no surprise that people are accentuating their eyes more to make up for it.

Clare Varga, head of beauty at trend forecaster WGSN, says that lashes will take the limelight this year.

“Whether it’s false lashes, mascara, growth serums or extensions, lashes are the new lipstick,” she says. 

Indeed, in the UK Primark has sold almost 800,000 sets of false lashes since reopening.

Varga adds: “Mask-wearing has focused attention upwards to the eyes, so people are creating bolder, more expressive eye looks. More time working from home and communicating via screens is also driving lash products. People want to look fresh and awake, and strong lashes deliver that. And while many people aren’t bothering with a full face of makeup, mascara is the one thing many people won’t go without.”

Asos and Tesco also expect to see shoppers adding eye products to their baskets.

Alex Scolding, Asos Face + Body head of buying, says: “Eyes are going to be a focus with the mandatory nature of face coverings for the global population, and we hope to see the upside in brows, mascaras and eye palettes and creative artistry around eyes continuing in its dominance.”

Fancy skincare

However, it’s not just the eyes that shoppers are splashing out on – skincare is expected to take a front seat when it comes to consumer spending. 

A new trend for slow beauty routines and pampering rituals has emerged this year, says Joanna Rogers, trading director and vice-president of beauty at Boots UK. “Ingredient-led products continued to disrupt the world of skincare during lockdown, with searches for ‘vitamin C skincare’ increasing by 5,000% on Boots.com and sales of facial skincare almost quadrupling.”

“Great skin is often seen as a reflection of overall health and in the last month alone searches for ‘glow’ products on Boots.com increased by over 1,000%”

Joanna Rogers, Boots UK

She adds: “Great skin is often seen as a reflection of overall health, and in the last month alone searches for ‘glow’ products on Boots.com increased by over 1,000%. We predict this is a lifestyle change that will stay with us, as nurturing skincare continues to trend and becomes a new pick-me-up for consumers.” 

Face masks

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Face masks are being treated by many as the latest fashion accessory

Face masks are, of course, the latest must-wear item and shoppers are seeking coverings that make a statement.

Fashion retailers across the spectrum – from value to designer – have been quick to create their own face masks.

Coverings may be necessary from a health perspective, but expect shoppers to treat them as the latest fashion accessory in which to take a selfie.

Global flavours

With many holidays cancelled, consumers will be looking to bring that taste of the exotic home. Think Keralan curry pastes, pots of kimchi and teriyaki sauce – global ingredients are on the up.

Waitrose.com revealed that during the first six weeks of lockdown searches for Indian food soared 144%, with Chinese, Thai and Japanese food all following closely behind.

Jennifer Creevy, head of food and drink at WGSN, says: “Consumers, for the most part, have been unable to travel over the last few months and we’re seeing a real desire for global flavours. Consumers want the experience that global dishes bring, to treat themselves and for that food or drink to transport them somewhere else.”

“Consumers want the experience that global dishes bring, to treat themselves and for that food or drink to transport them somewhere else”

Jennifer Creevy, WGSN

With a significant shift in consumers attempting to recreate international recipes, speciality oils have also enjoyed a boost. 

According to Kantar, sales of oils such as sesame, peanut and grapeseed grew by 16% in the 12 weeks to April 19. And with the appetite for far-flung flavours not going anywhere fast these items could soon become supermarket staples across the UK.

Potted plants

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With more time being spent in the home, there has been a surge in sales of plants

With consumers still restricted as to where and how they can socialise, entertaining at home will continue to be the norm. And money saved from eating out may instead be used for giving homes a makeover. 

Small purchases of potted plants, both real and fake, are helping to provide shoppers with an instant pick-me-up, giving tired rooms a lift for little money or effort. 

WGSN director of lifestyle and interiors Lisa White says Pinterest searches for “garden rooms” are up 104% in 2020 and all generational cohorts are purchasing, not just millennials. 

White says: “Plants bring nature into confined homes, clean the air, offer consumers a mindful activity – and hope. In retail, we see plants functioning very well as add-on purchases in grocery stores like Aldi and Whole Foods, and interior retailers such as Anthropologie and West Elm. Plant-care supplies like well-designed pots and clippers are also items to invest in.”

B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher has already experienced soaring demand for plants, with group like-for-like sales jumping 22% in the three months to July 18. 

Canned cocktails

Generally regarded as being “recession-proof”, alcohol has historically proven to be resilient during tough economic times.

With consumers keen to shake up their own Martinis and Margaritas, sales of spirits have soared throughout lockdown. 

Tequila sales at Waitrose rocketed 175% as people aimed to create a party atmosphere, and liqueurs jumped 78% as people tried new cocktails and drinks at home. This trend looks set to continue as we move into life after lockdown. 

Mintel’s associate director of consumer lifestyles research Jack Duckett says: “While restaurants and bars have started to reopen, many are holding back as concerns over eager crowds make some nervous about eating and drinking out of home.”

“While restaurants and bars have started to reopen, many are holding back as concerns over eager crowds make some nervous about eating and drinking out of home”

Jack Duckett, Mintel

Shoppers are still turning to booze to lighten their spirits with 15% of consumers stating they will spend more on alcohol to drink at home over the coming month, according to Mintel, and sales of beer, wine and spirits sold through grocers up 41% in the past month.

Yet, with consumers socialising more in parks and gardens this year, ease and convenience will be top of the shopping list when it comes to alcohol and it is no surprise that canned cocktails are one of the hottest categories in the alcohol sector. 

In a survey carried out by Bacardi, almost 30% of consumers say they plan to purchase ready-to-drink cocktails or canned spirit and mixers for their socially distanced summer get-togethers. 

Cocktails in a can are a hot trend this year, with Nielsen Scantrack stating that ready-to-drink cocktails’ growth had doubled in the four weeks to May 16.

Extra earrings

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Earrings have seen a spike in demand as shoppers look to accessorise for video calls

With video conferencing and Zoom calls still the norm for many daily interactions, being presentable from the waist up is all that’s required.

With the shift to above-the-waist dressing accelerated by the coronavirus crisis, earrings are once again in the spotlight, with fashion jewellery brands reporting a surge in earring sales.

Petah Marian, senior strategist at WGSN, explains: “It comes back to the recession idea of little luxuries – you can buy a pair of earrings or an accessory that makes that working-from-home outfit that bit more special; those are the types of things that might drive sales in the shorter term.”

And this certainly seems to be the case. Since stores reopened jewellers have reported a boost in sales, with the Company of Master Jewellers revealing that 54% of retailers said sales had been better than expected since they reopened.

Beaverbrooks has also seen a 23% increase in average transaction value on jewellery and watches, which it says reflects the pent-up demand of consumers for luxury items in lockdown.