Both food inflation and shop price inflation have seen a continued drop and are at their lowest levels since August 2022 and September 2022 respectively.


Shop price inflation is expected to keep falling but there are risks to this trend

Food inflation declined to 9.9% in September, down from 11.5% in August, and is the fifth consecutive deceleration in the food category, according to the BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price Index.

Annual shop price inflation also declined to 6.2% in September, compared with 6.9% in August. This is below the three-month average rate of 6.8% and represents the lowest shop price growth since September 2022.

Fresh food inflation also dropped to 9.6% compared with 11.6% the month before. This is the lowest level of inflation since July 2022.

Non-food inflation eased to 4.4% in September, down from 4.7% in August, while ambient food inflation fell to 10.4% compared to the month before.


British Retail Consortium chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Food prices dropped on the previous month for the first time in over two years because of fierce competition between retailers. 

“This brought year-on-year food inflation down to single digits and contributed to the fifth consecutive monthly fall in the headline rate, helped by easing cost pressures. 

“Customers who bought dairy, margarine, fish and vegetables – all typically own-brand lines – will have found lower prices compared to last month. Households also benefited from price cuts for school uniforms and other back-to-school essentials.

“We expect shop price inflation to continue to fall over the rest of the year; however, there are still many risks to this trend – high interest rates, climbing oil prices, global shortages of sugar, as well as the supply chain disruption from the war in Ukraine.

“Retailers will continue to do all they can to support their customers and bring prices down, especially as households face being squeezed by higher energy and mortgage bills.”