UK grocers and the food supply chain have stood tall and fed the nation during the coronavirus pandemic, but a no-deal Brexit in January could be a crisis too far. 

The UK’s supply chain has proven to be much more robust during the coronavirus outbreak than many had predicted.

Thanks to huge amounts of investment and hard work by retailers, supported by suppliers and government, it delivered the food and essential items people needed with only minimal disruption in those first weeks of the lockdown.

However, just as we begin to recover from this immense challenge, another issue looms large on the horizon – a disorderly Brexit on January 1, 2021.

With no clarity yet on what the final agreement will look like on border controls and operation of the Irish protocol, retailers and their suppliers have no idea how to import food or to move it to Northern Ireland from Great Britain.

“With no clarity yet on what the final agreement will look like on border controls and operation of the Irish protocol, retailers and their suppliers have no idea how to import food or to move it to Northern Ireland from Great Britain”

This is likely to present an even bigger challenge than coronavirus, a challenge that can’t be overcome simply through hard work by the UK supply chain.

The main difference is that during the current outbreak, food was always available in the supply chain, the problem was moving it on to the shelves quickly enough to keep pace with the unprecedented demand. There was no problem moving food into or within the UK.

On the first point, there were fears during the early stages of the pandemic that our reliance on imported European food would be a major issue for fresh fruit and vegetables, as well as impacting wider food availability. The UK is particularly reliant on European imports through the first four to five months of the year, prior to the UK growing season.

However, even though many of the countries key to our sourcing, such as Italy and Spain, were badly affected by the virus, imports continued to arrive. That may not be the case in January 2021.

Border restrictions

From January 2021 the UK and EU will implement border controls. As it stands we do not know what import procedures will be, how restrictive they will be, how they will impact the flow of food across the Channel or, crucially, how well prepared those key Channel ports are, particularly on the British side.

In the month of January 90% of our lettuces, 80% of our tomatoes and 70% of our soft fruit is imported from the EU across the Channel. Any disruption at these ports, whether from an ignorance of procedure or a lack of capacity to carry out checks, will have a major impact on fresh produce with short shelf lives.

Due to the volume of imports, there is no alternative to sourcing from the EU. Neither is there an alternative for the roll-on roll-off ports of the Channel crossings, which allow trucks to seamlessly bring food across from the continent straight to distribution hubs across the UK.

“Due to the volume of imports, there is no alternative to sourcing from the EU”

Unlike with coronavirus, the food may simply not be there in time in the supply chain to meet consumer demand.

The first challenge is moving food from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The UK has accepted that under the Northern Ireland protocol checks will be necessary. These checks could be extremely onerous for food retailers, adding huge time and cost to deliveries from Great Britain.

As Northern Irish supermarkets are reliant on supply from the UK, this is a major problem that is likely to affect the price and availability of food for consumers.

As we saw with coronavirus, retailers are incredibly resilient and adaptable, but the potential checks they could face to move food to Northern Ireland – and the enormous bureaucracy for just-in-time deliveries – may be insurmountable.

Facing the challenges

The challenge we face may well be greater than that during coronavirus, but it is avoidable. First, we need an agreement that works for consumers, reduced friction at borders to allow food to continue to flow as it is currently and to avoid unnecessary tariffs.

Second, checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain must be robust but practical and work for responsible businesses that invest in compliance.

Finally, clarity for all food businesses on the import process and procedures; they need to understand what is required and embed new systems well ahead of the end of the year to ensure supply won’t be interrupted in January.

We understand negotiations are ongoing, but the lack of clarity on what the UK’s import system will look like, or even confirmation that our key ports are ready to handle them, is extremely unsettling.

With less than eight months to go we need that clarity urgently and the same close working between government and food retailers that was so important in meeting the challenge of coronavirus.