January’s trading updates contained many references to the weather, but is there any link between the climate and retail sales?

ONS: No 'clear link' between weather and retail sales

Why are we talking about it now?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a paper that concludes there is “no clear relationship” between the weather and retail sales. It says only that sustained extreme weather conditions can have a “substantial impact on the UK economy”.

What evidence does the ONS have?

Having examined sales against the temperature over the past 10 years, the ONS says the weather has a “complicated” effect on retail revenues.

It finds that warmer weather does not always mean better trading. Although temperatures were 1.90C above average from June to September 2009, retail sales remained “relatively stable”. But in July 2013, when temperatures were 2.10C above average, sales “substantially increased”.

The ONS also pointed out two rainy periods in the last decade when retail sales fell in one instance and rose in another. Similar evidence was presented for snowy periods. However, the ONS conceded that “severe” cold weather in 2010, which it regards as a “statistical special event”, impacted retail sales “significantly”.

Which retailers have blamed trouble on the weather man?

This month Marks & Spencer blamed the unseasonably warm October for poor sales across its non-food business, which dragged down overall trading. New Look, Primark and N Brown also said the weather impacted sales during the mild autumn and winter period.

Retailers have a long history of blaming the weather. Debenhams was forced to issue a profit warning in March last year after it blamed the snow for a 10% drop in sales in its half-year results. Even Arcadia owner Sir Philip Green blamed the “mild and wet” weather for a 3.7% sales fall in the year to August 31, 2013.

Is it fair to dismiss retailers’ weather troubles?

Former M&S boss Sir Stuart Rose famously said the “weather is for wimps”, but retailers argue it is an important trading factor.

Verdict lead retail analyst Patrick O’Brien believes they are right. “It undoubtedly has an effect,” he says. “The ONS is looking at it on an overall sales basis and is trying to track any patterns. But it misses the point.” O’Brien explains the weather can have contrasting impacts dependent on the type of product being sold.

He points out that Dixons boss Seb James “boasted” at the beginning of summer 2012 that electricals had benefited from the bad weather when fashion sales had slumped.