From Cardiff to Cheshunt, Paddington to Paisley, retail’s bunkers are readying themselves for the year’s biggest blowout – Christmas. Retailers that depend on second-half performance for the bulk or entirety of their profits – and there are plenty of them – will be chewing their nails in anxiety, because the downturn is likely still to be in full swing.


Foremost among those at risk of a let-down is variety store group Woolworths, which last week previewed its Christmas range and grabbed column inches with its tips for best-selling toys. That old 1980s favourite the Rubik’s Cube featured on Woolies’ list and is a good metaphor for the position the retailer is in. Intelligence and hard work might pay off and Christmas may fall perfectly into place, or the brain-teaser might prove too taxing and result in nothing but frustration.

Woolies patted itself on the back earlier this year, as it pulled out all the stops and reported a return to profitability at its core stores division. But analysts detected a hint of legerdemain and the bears remained grizzly. Added to the challenge of pressurised trading conditions is the uncertainty brought by the imminent exit of chief Trevor Bish-Jones.

Leading the bears is Panmure Gordon’s Philip Dorgan, who this week moved from hold to sell and brought his price target down from an already depressing 9p to 5p. Among the bulls is Kaupthing’s Matthew McEachran, advising buy with a 14p price target. He was impressed by the value offer on show at the Christmas preview and thinks it may help Woolies offset some of the downturn. There could also be a sale of joint venture 2entertain before Christmas.

Whoever is right, festive season preparations are now pretty much a done deal and the leadership baton will soon be passed on. Much will depend on whether Woolies’ new boss is judged “just a trader”, as Bish-Jones was dismissively labelled by critics, or someone who can preside over change.

Has Burberry still got it?

Even value specialist Dunelm – which put on impressive sales growth last year – proved vulnerable to the downturn, as like-for-likes fell in the fourth quarter, ending a run of seven consecutive quarters of comparable store sales growth.

Next week, eyes will turn to the opposite end of the spectrum, when Burberry updates on Tuesday. Will upscale shoppers still be splashing out?

George MacDonald is deputy editor of Retail Week