When the chief executive of Next is attacked by the prime minister, it is a sign that, more than ever, the retail industry needs to speak truth to power with a single voice. 

This year’s golden quarter must be one of the most uncertain ever faced by retailers and some fear it cannot live up to its name as they confront a raft of headaches.

On top of the HGV driver shortage has come wider labour availability challenges, such as in warehouses, as flagged by Next boss Lord Wolfson. All that is in addition to the ongoing disruption of everyday life evidenced by the run on petrol as spooked consumers raced to fill their tanks. 

And just at the time when shoppers have traditionally thrown open their purses, concerns over the rising cost of living and rocketing energy bills have only added to the tense and nervous mood.

“You would think Wolfson was just the sort of business person whose measured and well-informed views the government would take notice of. Think again”

Wolfson is one of the retail industry’s most respected leaders, with a consistent track record of success. What’s more, he supported Brexit and is a Tory peer. You would think he was just the sort of business person whose measured and well-informed views the government would take notice of.

Think again. When Wolfson urged an easing of immigration restrictions – subject to tight conditions – to address warehouse staff shortages, he was criticised by Boris Johnson

The PM argued that Wolfson’s proposal “has extreme limitations, to put it mildly” and said it was symptomatic of “an approach where business of many kinds was able to mainline low wage, low-cost immigration for a very long time”.

Johnson’s comments typified what many fear has become an anti-business mindset – all the worse when voiced against an industry such as retail, which made such a contribution at the height of the pandemic when store staff and delivery drivers made heroic efforts to keep shoppers supplied.

That must worry all retailers as they face a potentially turbulent Christmas trading period – but their concerns are being largely ignored.

The latest BRC-KPMG retail sales data illustrated exactly why golden quarter concerns are mounting. Like-for-likes edged down 0.6% year on year in September – below the three-month average growth of 1.7% and the 12-month average of 10.2%.

It was the most lacklustre performance since January when lockdown restrictions were in place.

KPMG head of retail Paul Martin warned: “As we run into the crucial Christmas shopping period, retailers continue to face staffing pressures and supply chain issues, with challenges getting product into the UK and getting goods into customers‘ hands.  

“This may feed into limited availability of certain products and the spectre of price rises remains as retailers pull all the strings for Christmas.”

There is clear evidence that consumers are doing their Christmas shopping early, giving themselves both time for goods to arrive and allowing them to budget. 

Aldi, for instance, has reported that its turkey crowns are selling at four times the rate usual at this time of year.

Online delivery slots at retailers such as Waitrose and Ocado are also filling up fast – at the former, twice as many have been booked compared with this time last year.

Pureplay fashion operator Very began airing its Christmas ad at the start of this month to try to encourage early festive spending in key categories.

“However, even as the BRC has warned of the dangers, it has not always been helped by comments made by leaders who have downplayed the extent of problems widely acknowledged in private”

An early shopping trend should help many retailers minimise the chances of disappointing customers, as might be the case if there was a last-minute rush.

There is no doubt that trading conditions this year are disrupted. However, even as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned of the dangers facing retail, and the threats to its success, it has not always been helped by comments made in public by some retail leaders who have downplayed the extent of problems that are widely acknowledged in private.

In some ways, their reassuring comments are understandable. They do not wish to provoke panic-buying and they do not want to drive customers into the arms of rivals by flagging difficulties that shoppers may then identify specifically with their companies. And, no doubt, they do not wish to be embroiled in political sparring, as happened to Wolfson.

But their emollient words risk undermining the urgency of the message being sent to the government by retailers individually or, through the BRC, collectively.

Now, more than ever, if retailers want to be heard, they must present a united front.

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