Following Boris Johnson’s address to the nation last night, the government has today published guidance on how the UK might move out of lockdown assuming the pandemic is kept under control.

The latter point is vital. If the spread of the virus increases, lockdown measures would likely be reintroduced.

The government report, Our Plan to Rebuild, is described as a “cautious roadmap to easing existing measures in a safe and measured way, subject to successfully controlling the virus and being able to monitor and react to its spread”.

The roadmap “will be kept constantly under review as the epidemic and the world’s understanding of it develops”.

Here, Retail Week highlights some of the key elements affecting retail.

Reopening non-essential retail

While some industries, such as food production, construction and logistics are being encouraged to begin reopening from Wednesday, hospitality and ‘non-essential’ retail are among “the only exceptions to this” and are required to remain shut.

Non-essential retailers may be able to open from the start of June but that, like all the measures outlined in the report, “will depend on the most up-to-date assessment of the risk posed by the virus”.

The reopening of non-essential retail will follow further government advice to be issued “shortly” on “the approach that will be taken to phasing, including which businesses will be covered in each phase and the timeframes involved”.

The steps towards the end of lockdown

Hospitality and personal care businesses will not be able to reopen at the same time “because the risk of transmission in these environments is higher”.

The reopening of other retail and consumer businesses will not happen any earlier than July 4. The government plan says: “The ambition at this step is to open at least some of the remaining businesses and premises that have been required to close, including personal care (such as hairdressers and beauty salons) hospitality (such as food service providers, pubs and accommodation), public places (such as places of worship) and leisure facilities (like cinemas). They should also meet the Covid-19 secure guidelines.”

The government warns: “Some venues which are, by design, crowded and where it may prove difficult to enact distancing may still not be able to reopen safely at this point or may be able to open safely only in part. Nevertheless, the government will wish to open as many businesses and public places as the data and information at the time allows.”

To facilitate that, the government “will carefully phase and pilot reopenings to test their ability to adopt the new Covid-19 secure guidelines. The government will also monitor carefully the effects of reopening other similar establishments elsewhere in the world, as this happens.”

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson says: ”Retailers desperately need clarity in the rules regarding when and how they can open – details that are still lacking. Safety must be the primary concern in these decisions, rather than size or type of shop.”

Consumer confidence

While there will be delight among many people that some of the lockdown rules, such as how often people may leave their homes, are being relaxed this week, consumers will be emerging into a very different world where shopping and everyday life will remain highly regimented.

Consumers are advised to wear face coverings in enclosed spaces where they will come into contact with others outside their contact groups. “This is most relevant for short periods indoors in crowded areas, for example on public transport or in some shops,” the report says.

While face coverings can instil confidence, they may also be a highly visible reminder to some of the possibility of contracting the virus and therefore put people off returning to their previous shopping habits.

Similarly, fear about using public transport could deter shoppers from travelling to busy retail destinations and, should they feel inclined to, restricted services are also likely to be a hurdle.

People are being advised to avoid public transport, which even as services are restored will have to operate at vastly reduced capacity to ensure social distancing. That is likely to affect metropolitan areas in particular. London transport body TfL, for instance, today advised people to “shop locally… to help keep demand on roads, buses and tubes down”.

Even when shops have reopened, lockdown habits may persist among consumers.

Travel retail locations likely to be hit

From holidays to the daily commute, travel has fallen off a cliff during the pandemic.

Today’s advice to avoid the use of public transport wherever possible will clearly affect footfall at hubs such as railway stations, which have been lucrative retail locations for retailers such as WHSmith and Marks & Spencer.

It was also accompanied by tougher restrictions on overseas travel to the UK. The government “will require all international arrivals not on a shortlist of exemptions to self-isolate in their accommodation for 14 days on arrival into the UK”.

However, journeys from the Common Travel Area, including Ireland, will be exempt, as will France.

Economic assistance will not last forever

The lockdown was accompanied by a raft of aid initiatives to assist businesses through the tumultuous period, such as the coronavirus job retention scheme and an £11bn business rates holiday.

Altogether the direct cost to the government is put at potentially more than £100bn in 2020/21 – and on top of that guarantees and loans to businesses amount to £330bn.

The government warns: “These measures are extraordinarily costly and cannot be sustained for a prolonged period of time… as the UK adjusts the current restrictions, the government will also need to wind down the economic support measures while people are eased back to work.”

The report says: “The world will not return to ‘normal’ after Covid-19; much of the global economy is likely to change significantly. The UK will need to be agile in adapting to and shaping this new world if the government is to improve living standards across the nation as it recovers.”