In the last year, the UK has leapt from a pandemic to a political circus straight into an economic whirlwind, begging the question: what’s next? So we’ve asked the bosses of retail to predict the unpredictable and tell us the trends they think will dominate and direct the sector in 2023

Paul Marchant

Paul Marchant, chief executive, Primark

“There’s no doubt that value will be more important than ever as consumers battle against the cost-of-living crisis and rising energy bills. We know our customers will be looking to us to help them through this tough time by keeping our prices low and offering the best value on the high street.

“It does feel like we’re seeing a bit of a resurgence of the high street and I think we’ll see that continue next year, despite the economic challenges. Creating stores that people want to spend time in and experiences they can’t get online will be critical for those wanting to stand out. That’s why we’re continuing to invest in new and existing stores, and thinking creatively about how we use our stores, to give more people more reasons to shop with us and visit the high street.”

Lionel Desclee

Lionel Desclée, chief executive, The Very Group

“As we enter 2023, our family-focused customers are prioritising value, convenience and flexibility more than ever. As that trend becomes more pronounced, retailers will need to think carefully about what value means for their customers. At Very, it’s about developing our offer of big brands, great own-brand collections and flexible payment options to help families get more out of life.

“In challenging economic times, customers turn to brands they trust and I think we’ll see that happen in the year ahead. Retailers who are laser-focused on their core customers and how best to serve them will build long-lasting goodwill. For us, that means investing rather than retrenching and building new capabilities to grow our customer base for the future.

“Finally, I think technology will continue to be a powerful tool in creating immersive, personalised digital customer experiences. We’ve launched virtual try-on features within our beauty category and will be exploring the use of augmented reality across other categories. We’ll see more digital retailers using tech to bring customers closer to products in 2023.”

Steve Oliver

Steve Oliver, founder and chief executive, Music Magpie 

“It feels like 2023 will truly become the year that the circular economy takes pride of place in the front and centre of consumer’s mindsets. In the last couple of years, we have seen more and more people start to engage with brands that are not only providing a service that is smart for them on price and service, but that is also ‘smart for the planet’ where they can further invest in a brand by being emotionally engaged with it.

“Music Magpie’s monthly subscription rental on a range of consumer technology products has proven to be more and more popular in its value to customers and its sustainability credentials, and we can see more and more brands looking to see how they can expand their offer from pure outright sales to include the more circular nature of rental subscriptions.”

Graham Stapleton

Graham Stapleton, chief executive, Halfords

“Inflation is forecast to ease a little next year but customers will continue to spend carefully. Price competitiveness is important, of course, but the bigger opportunity for retailers is to show how they are offering better value by making customers’ money go further, for example, by using less energy and by prioritising quality. Sustainability will also remain front of mind, which is why extending product life through maintenance and repair is a key part of our agenda.

“As inflation bites and low consumer confidence continues, some businesses may struggle to keep trading. I think further consolidation in the market is inevitable.”

Barry Bown

Barry Bown, executive chair and chief executive, Footasylum

“Despite all the uncertainty out there, we’re actually looking ahead to 2023 with quite a bit of optimism. We recently opened our first new store since April 2021, taking our total number of stores to 60, and we have a strong pipeline of further openings planned for next year. We’re continuing to see strong demand in both our stores and online, and both our own brands and our third-party brands are proving to be resilient. We’re fortunate that our target demographic is still willing to prioritise their spending on fashion streetwear and sportswear and, while you’d be unwise to make any firm predictions about the future at the moment, we see no reason for this to change any time soon.

“After a challenging few years, we’re delighted that our new owners, Aurelius Group, so clearly share our ambition and vision for the business. However, we’re certainly not complacent and we’re well aware that we’re going to have to continue to work hard in the face of a consumer environment that is clearly going to be tough for a while to come.”

Thierry Garnier

Thierry Garnier, chief executive, Kingfisher 

“Rising energy bills have led to a surge in customer interest in energy efficiency this year and that’s a trend we expect to continue into 2023 and beyond. The UK’s housing is among the least energy-efficient in Europe and our research found that those living in inefficient homes are paying on average £448 more per year for their energy. With bills set to rise further from next April, our focus is on making energy efficiency improvements as easy and affordable as possible for our customers. 

“Another trend we expect is the continued rise of online marketplaces, which are growing twice as fast as first-party ecommerce. We launched our first marketplaces this year at B&Q and in Spain and Portugal, and they’ve had a positive early response from customers.”

Deann Evans

Deann Evans, director of EMEA expansion and partnerships, Shopify

“This year, there is a myriad of factors impacting consumers’ behaviour and purchasing decisions, from inflation and interest-rate hikes to geopolitical tensions. But there are some positive indicators, as evidenced by the $7.5bn (£6.2bn) of revenue we saw for Shopify merchants across the recent Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend, a 19% increase from 2021.

“Shoppers are being far more intentional and considerate in their spending this year. Two-thirds of UK consumers recently told us they were looking to spend money on higher-quality products that will last for a long time. Almost half (49%) of UK shoppers have also put more money aside for this year’s holiday shopping than last year. These factors combined mean it has never been more important for retailers to get the right offer in front of shoppers at the right time. 

“With many having an eye on high-quality items but holding out for a certain price to make the purchase, we will likely see sales subvert the traditional Boxing Day period, both creeping in earlier and extending deeper into January.”

Picture Matt Hood

Matt Hood, managing director, Co-op Food

“I’m really looking forward to 2023 and my first full year leading the Co-op food business. Our focus will be on providing the full convenience-led, value equation for our customers, members and communities by ensuring products are available when customers need them, offering brilliant product quality and recognising the need for strong prices and promotions; ultimately helping customers to both manage household budgets for everyday items but also treat themselves in smaller ways.

“I predict, and am excited to see, ‘quick convenience’ becoming an intrinsic way of food shopping next year, as consumers become more focussed on the commodity of time and appreciate the ease and speed of almost instant online delivery.”