Most of us know someone who has experienced the perils of #Southernfail.

Over the last couple of months we’ve seen extreme delays, cancellations and frantic searches for alternate transport for thousands of commuters who use the Southern Rail service.

However, it’s not just the commute affected by the ongoing Southern Rail dispute.

The planned strikes have been taking place in the run-up to Christmas, the most important time of year for retail and undoubtedly, this lack of adequate transport has had an effect on retailers across London whose employees and shoppers use the line.

We’ve taken a look into footfall over the four strike periods from November 3, 2016 to December 16, 2016.

High street footfall index (WoW change, %)

RegionNov 3-5Nov 22-23Dec 6-813-DecAverage
UK -10.3 3 -22.6 5.6 -9.9
Greater London -12 4.6 -23.2 2.6 -10.7
South East -7.3 3.4 -24 7.5 -8.9
West End of London -10.2 6.7 -25.7 5.2 -10.2
Central London -10.2 6.7 -25.6 3.1 -10.5
Outer London -14.5 0.2 -25.9 6.5 -12.9
London -11.7 4.4 -25.8 5.7 -11.2
Guildford -14 6 -29.6 1.7 -13.6
Croydon -20.9 -2 -29.3 4.6 -16.7
Wimbledon -8 1.8 -22.7 7.9 -8.8

Across the four strike periods as a whole, UK footfall declined by -9% from the same days in previous weeks, whereas footfall in the West End declined by -10.3% and in outer London (including many areas connected by Southern Rail) by -12.9%.

You could be forgiven for assuming that with no rail-connection into central London, people may have turned to their local high-streets for planned Christmas shopping, creating an adverse effect on central London destinations.

Numbers heading south

However, what we see based on these results is the opposite.

The greater drop in footfall in outer London, where there are no other direct connections to London, indicates that shoppers are either cancelling or deferring their shopping trips entirely; this is likely to be due to the fact that alternative modes of transport are also operating over capacity as any Southern passengers are looking for new routes to their destination.

Equally, footfall in the West End is not entirely reliant on outer London commuters and, given the diversity of visitors who live in and visit central London, it is perhaps unsurprising that this issue, unique to one line in to London, is not having a severe effect on West End footfall.

When we look at specific hubs for Southern Rail, such as Guildford and Croydon, we can see the real impact of the strikes and disturbances; average footfall is down in both destinations by -13.6% and -16.7% respectively.

Comparatively, Wimbledon has fared considerably better at -8.8% and perhaps this can be attributed to the fact that the town centre can provide other travel options.

Evidently, the strike is having an impact on footfall particularly in areas along the Southern line and this will be a concern for retailers in the run-up to Christmas.

However, rather than completely opting out of shopping trips, it is likely that shoppers will re-arrange their plans or simply buy online – so all is not lost.

  • Diane Wehrle is Springboard’s insights director