A former Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, was known for saying, “Change is inevitable. Change is constant”.

The data published by The Local Data Company (LDC) and PwC along with today’s pledge by Ed Milliband on business rates highlight the cause and effect of issues in our town centres.

How right he was and in the current political debate concerning our high streets it could not be a more apt observation.

The data published by The Local Data Company (LDC) and PwC along with today’s pledge by Ed Milliband on business rates highlight the cause and effect of issues in our town centres.

Retail is big business for the UK but it is not just about big business. At LDC we track over half a million retail and leisure premises up and down the country and of these 66% (275,000) are businesses with less than five outlets. But in floorspace-terms the chain retailers are dominant. Between the two the retail and leisure industry is estimated to be £85bn or nearly 9% of GDP. The business rates liability for all of these businesses is £12.8bn and is set to increase but already since 2008, the five year growth has been 22.51%.

Cause. Taxes are a critical part of a democratic society but what has happened since 2008 is that the basis upon which the tax is calculated has changed dramatically. The basis I refer to is rents. This has not happened over night or indeed since 2008 but what we have had pre 2008 is structural change being fuelled by a consumer boom which when the recession hit many were unprepared for. The consumer became king for the first time and a combination of the internet, the increasing dominance of supermarkets, development out of town and consumer technology meant that high streets were no longer the destination of choice.

Effect. Overnight in 2008 the consumer bubble burst and people retreated to their homes or in many cases their home owned by the bank. Footfall dropped by over 10%, businesses built up in the good times went into administration led by Woolworths with over 800 shops in January 2009. As a result vacancy rates quadrupled to nearly 15% and the site of boarded up shops on every high street illustrated the problem. Basic economics tells you that with this lack of demand and oversupply the market would change radically. It did and continues to do so. Retailers who fought for monthly rents got them, lease lengths halved and incentives increased. In a majority of high streets rents fell significantly. In terms of a broad range nationally this has been a 10-40% rental decline.

The challenge for Government therefore lies in the fact that a tax predicated on rental rates when it comes to revaluation you will see a significant drop in tax income. This will not be true of all locations as those in London and the South East will see a rise in their business rates. It is a significant cost to businesses, especially the SMEs who cannot spread the cost over a large number of stores nationally and therefore once can understand the outcry when the decision to postpone the 2015 revaluation to 2017 was taken.

The LDC data tracks occupation on high streets, in shopping centres, on retail parks and stand alone stores. The data on chains and independents in towns is positive in that the chain closure rate has slowed and independents are still growing but only just.

The bigger news is the structural change taking place that underlies these headline numbers. In the first half of 2013 in the top 500 town centres over 5,000 traditional comparison goods shops closed with a net loss of 563 units. At the same time leisure uses (food & beverage) opened 3,315 units with a net increase of 416 units.

The facts are therefore that our high streets are continuing to decline as a location of choice for shopping and are, for many not all, becoming experiential locations where leisure, entertainment, culture, community and some shopping are brought together in a unique and historic environment. Not all towns are, however, are unique or historic and when faced with modern out of town mega malls and retail parks, and weak consumer spend/wealth then they have little or no hope of success. Average dwell times in modern shopping centres is over three hours and therefore significantly longer that your average high street.

The key question is who are these towns and what alternative use can be made for them, because whatever one’s view they are someone’s home and community and deserve recognition and help?

Change is inevitable. Change is constant. In order to manage change you need to know what is changing, where and at what speed. No ship sets sail without a radar and nor should politics.

Matthew Hopkinson is a director at The Local Data Company