In just months the economic landscape has been transformed. In the past week the political landscape has too, as Chancellor Alistair Darling attempted emergency surgery on the economy. But how much has the retail landscape changed?

Sadly, not much. Prospects for store groups next year and further into the future remain tough. In such gloomy circumstances the magic word from an investment point of view is resilience and the hunt is on for the store groups that have the endurance to compete in the downturn marathon.
It’s already becoming clear which retailers are gasping for breath. Woolworths – with 800 stores, 30,000 staff and a 99-year heritage in this country – was teetering on the brink as Retail Week went to press. But other than the supermarkets, powerful in the defensive food category, which store groups show that much sought-after resilience?

Fashion group Next has plenty of fans, even though the downturn will take a toll. Analysts like its strong cash flow, cautious management style and home shopping presence through the Directory. The retailer said in its July interims that of 458 shops, 311 make a branch profit in excess of 20 per cent. Only one makes a loss and even that store makes a positive contribution after adding back depreciation.

As KBC Peel Hunt analyst John Stevenson observes: “There are very few retailers which would be willing to share such a chart at this time and even fewer that could deliver this level of consistency.”

Also faring well is that one-time weakling, WHSmith. The bookseller and stationer shows little sign of stalling under Kate Swann’s leadership. The retailer is always cautious about crystal ball-gazing on trading prospects, but analysts seem confident that there will be no nasty surprises. If Woolworths goes the way of all flesh, WHSmith is likely to be a long-term beneficiary – even if a Woolworths closing-down Sale piles on some pressure in the near term.

The list of retail’s resilient, as reflected in brokers’ notes following recent updates, might also include maternity specialist Mothercare, petrol-heads’ favourite Halfords, online meteor Asos and home shopping goliath N Brown.

As we reported last week, Investec has gone so far as to move the whole general retail sector from underweight to neutral in the conviction that, while it’s too early to get excited, stores have been sufficiently downgraded.

Maybe that could be dismissed as glass-half-full thinking. But for retailers, surely there’s some relief that City opinion is not universally glass-half-empty.

George MacDonald is deputy editor of Retail Week