Retail sales lost due to the recent wet weather are expected to be recovered in part in the coming months, the latest Opera Solutions Retail Predictor for Retail Week shows.
Opera executive director and Europe lead Ray Eitel-Porter expected the Olympics to help sustain increases in the July and August period and added: “Another driver of the high sales is the bad weather of the past months that has caused an accumulation of seasonal/summer shopping that is likely to be postponed.”
Sales growth is forecast to come in at 3.7% in July, ahead of the 10-year average of 3.4% for the month. In August the rise is expected to be 4%, better than the 10-year average of 3.5%.
Forecasts for September, October and November have been edged up, although expectations for those months remain below historical averages.
“Our current forecast for July to December is largely consistent with our previous forecasts,” said Eitel-Porter.
The level of sales growth in the months following the Olympics is likely to be affected by falling inflation and the relatively high year-on-year advances at the end of 2011 compared with 2010.
The latest forecasts follow last week’s official retail sales data from the ONS, which showed year-on-year growth in May, including fuel, of 3.3% by value. Opera had forecast 3.1%.