However we term the downturn, we are entering poorly chartered territory with out-of-date maps.

Consumer spending and consumer confidence, two sides of the same coin, have surprisingly different face values, varying in their duration, as well as their speed of recovery. Consumer spending might continue to grow, but consumer confidence is fading fast.

Research by Pricewaterhouse-Coopers (PwC) shows that consumers’ expectations on whether they will be better or worse off in the next 12 months are deteriorating sharply. The balance of opinion has gone from +13 per cent in April to -41 per cent in June.

PwC’s analysis also shows that spending in the last recession took seven quarters (1989-90) to decline and another seven quarters (1991-92) to return to pre-recession levels; the fall was 3.5 per cent, the period 3.5 years. Yet consumer confidence did not fully recover until 1997 – seven years after the consumer spending cycle had bottomed out.

Today’s downturn is undeniably real, albeit not officially yet a recession. This R-word of the moment is proving as shy to express itself as was recovery – the other R-word that Marks & Spencer was so reluctant to pronounce.

However we term the downturn, we are entering poorly chartered territory with some rather out-of-date maps. The last recession is too distant – both as an event for today’s retailers who did not live through it and as a memory for those who did. And even the elephants among us who do remember it well recognise we’re in a different game park now.

This would be the first recession in the internet age. This new, powerful, 24/7, fuel-thrifty channel is not only at our fingertips, but is empowering us with instant price comparisons, just as we become more conscious of the constraints on our disposable income.

The retail market is also structured very differently now: the top four grocers’ market share is 75 per cent – twice what it was in 1990. And, at that time, none of the top 10 fashion retailers was a true value player (pace C&A), whereas half of them today are classified as such.

PwC’s research indicates that food and clothing, formerly quite recession-proof, may be less immune now. But restaurants, hard hit in previous recessions, could prove more resilient today. Casual dining has become ingrained in consumer behaviour – two thirds of us eat out at least once a month, compared with 22 per cent in 1989.

Unsurprisingly, confidence levels among more affluent consumer groups and the young remain the most buoyant. But discretionary spending in general and purchases of big-ticket items in particular will see universal cut-backs.

Many will replace foreign holidays with ones at home, so-called “stay-cations”. At least when shoppers stay at home, they can continue shopping online.