Believe it or not, it’s been just 48 days since Boris Johnson moved into 10 Downing Street after succeeding Theresa May as Prime Minister.

But Britain’s leader has already found himself at the epicentre of an increasingly ferocious political storm – the likes of which many of his predecessors did not experience in years of premiership – as he battles to deliver Brexit on October 31.

Amid Johnson’s insistence that no deal remained on the table to strengthen his negotiating position in Brussels, his position in Parliament has weakened.

As in-fighting raged within the Conservative ranks over the shape of the UK’s exit from the EU, Johnson’s wafer-thin majority was wiped out when MP Phillip Lee defected to the Liberal Democrats.

“The uncertainty that I’m living with is I can’t plan. I don’t know what it is I’ve got to solve, therefore I’m struggling to solve it”

Gary Grant, The Entertainer

A host of Tory MPs, including former Chancellors Kenneth Clarke and Philip Hammond, and the grandson of former Conservative leader Sir Winston Churchill, Nicholas Soames, also had the party whip withdrawn last week after supporting Labour’s no-deal Brexit delay bill. Their sackings further weakened Johnson’s hand, bringing the prospect of an election firmly into view.

Johnson’s own brother Jo then resigned from his Cabinet position as Minister of State for Universities and Science, and as MP for Orpington, after admitting he was “torn between family and the national interest”.

And yesterday proved another bruising one in Johnson’s already turbulent reign. First, the Queen gave the Royal Assent to the bill that blocks Johnson from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal on October 31.

Speaker of the House John Bercow then revealed his intention to resign on or before October 31. And by the evening, Johnson’s second desperate attempt to push through an early general election on October 15 was scuppered after Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru again joined forces to either vote against the motion or abstain.

Uncertainty continues

The entertainer

The Entertainer says being in limbo means decisions are difficult to make

That will be the last meaningful act in the Commons for more than a month. Johnson prorogued Parliament yesterday until October 14, despite the deepening Brexit crisis he is grappling to avert.

The five-week hiatus has left yet more uncertainty lingering over the UK’s businesses and consumers, at a time when both are crying out for definitive answers.

Will Johnson secure a deal with Brussels? Will there be a further delay in the Brexit date to allow for further negotiations? Will there be a general election and, if so, when?

The one positive for retailers among ongoing political indecision is that the threat of a no-deal Brexit has seemingly been nullified by opposition parties and rebel Tories. Johnson, however, remains insistent that he would “rather be dead in a ditch” than seek another extension to Article 50 if a deal is not agreed by October 31.

The grocery industry, in particular, has been vocal about the impact a Halloween crash-out would have on reducing in-store availability and pushing up prices. Tesco boss Dave Lewis and Sainsbury’s chief executive Mike Coupe are among those who have warned of such knock-on effects ahead of the crucial golden quarter.

They are far from alone. Another grocery executive tells Retail Week: “Removing the no-deal cliff edge is obviously a good thing for retail and particularly for us in the food industry. What we cannot afford is checks and queues at ports that leave food sitting at borders and impacting freshness and availability.

“There’s been a lot of talk about the short-term impact of Brexit being on October 31, because of the lack of room in warehouses ahead of Christmas. But a no deal would hit the food industry no matter when it happened.

“If you suddenly turn the tap off on the free movement of fresh food into the UK, at any point in time, that is going to cause delays and mean the quality is not as good by time that food reaches your shelves and customers’ dinner tables.

“And if additional tariffs come into force, you are faced with the choice of whether to absorb that margin pressure, which a lot of retailers will be reluctant to do, or pass those costs on to your customers. So a no-deal situation is a no-win situation, really.”

Taking no-deal off the table for now has encouraged other retailers. The Entertainer founder and boss Gary Grant hopes that the vote to ask for an extension will pave the way for a deal to be struck.

“I think for all parties involved, both the UK and Europe, coming up with a negotiated deal is best for everyone. And I don’t mean ‘take it or leave it’ – because that’s not a deal, that’s an ultimatum,” Grant says.

“The uncertainty that I’m living with is I can’t plan. I don’t know what it is I’ve got to solve, therefore I’m struggling to solve it. We’ve never spent so long in our business trying to work out ‘what ifs?’ What if I end up having to pay tariffs on the stock I send to the continent, of which I send a lot there?”

Deal or no deal?

Although retailers are in near-unanimous agreement in their preference for a deal to be struck with the EU, the chances of that happening before Halloween are diminishing by the day.

Yet for some retailers, asking for another extension more than three years after the EU referendum is not very appetising.

Theo Paphitis Jan 2016003

Theo Paphitis says Boris Johnson ‘needs to get on with it and stop pissing around’

Theo Paphitis, whose retail stable includes Ryman, Robert Dyas and Boux Avenue, is among those who are sceptical as to what another delay would achieve.

He suggests that a fresh extension to Article 50 would “make no difference whatsoever” and argues that Johnson should not have prorogued Parliament if he was serious about striking a deal before October 31.

“We have a national crisis, so to prorogue Parliament for the longest period in modern-day history is absolutely laughable. We have a national crisis and we think we can shut down Parliament – that tells you they don’t want people to be informed. To say it’s normal business is nonsense – we are not in normal times.

“[Johnson] needs to get on with it and stop pissing around. Prove the doubters wrong please, Prime Minister.”

An executive from one general merchandise business agrees. “Parliament’s position on this has been totally unacceptable. Politicians have blood on their hands for allowing things to get to where we are now,” he thunders.

“These are very unsettling times for businesses and consumers. There’s a real lack of confidence among shoppers and we’ve seen that hit spending in the last four months or so. They voted to leave the EU – we need to get on and leave, one way or the other, on October 31.”

The grocery boss echoes such sentiments, too, arguing that “there is no magical Brexit deal out there that can be done” and says “kicking the can down the road for no specific reason” would do further damage to businesses and consumer confidence.

“Consumers are telling us they are overwhelmingly bored,” he adds. “They are worried, of course, but they are also very bored. They just want it over and done with now on October 31.”

Grant, however, sees merit in the Government asking for an extension until January 31, 2020 – the date set out in the no-deal Brexit delay bill – to allow for more negotiations to take place.

“If we are able to negotiate a satisfactory deal with our partners in Europe, then I’d definitely be up for a delay of the Brexit negotiations in order to achieve a negotiated settlement,” he says.

“A good negotiation [means] both parties should walk away with a win, win, and at the moment it doesn’t feel like the UK on a bad exit is walking away with a win.

“I feel we’ve got to look beyond the next three months, six months, one year. As a grandparent, decisions that are made today are going to affect my grandchildren and therefore I do think all of us, both the UK and Europe, should be taking a slightly longer view of this.”

Looming election

But whose decisions will these ultimately be to make? Johnson had pushed for an election on October 15, but Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and fellow opposition parties have derailed those efforts. Corbyn wants an election to be held in November, after a no deal has been prevented and an extension to Article 50 granted.

Would an election help or hinder efforts to secure a deal – and provide some much-needed certainty to retail?

“The Government needs a mandate to negotiate with the EU,” the general merchandise boss argues. “How can Boris have a negotiation when he would effectively be saying: ‘This is what I want to happen, but it might not be my choice in November, it might be Jeremy Corbyn’s.’ It’s like changing the husband mid-way through divorce proceedings. I don’t see how that would help anyone.”

Grant concurs. “A general election wouldn’t bring about any more confidence. It won’t solve the lack of confidence that we’re living through today,” he says.

“I don’t know if Theresa May or Boris Johnson or any other Prime Minister can bring this disruption to an end as it’s creating a lot of friction. Another general election would just be the next chapter in this unfolding story.”

Retailers and consumers alike are hoping it is a story that doesn’t have too many chapters left to run. But with a no-deal Brexit seemingly off the table, and merely a month left for Johnson and his fractured party to agree a deal in Brussels, an extension until next January and a November election look increasingly likely to be the next twists in the Brexit tale.

As one executive puts it, retailers, until then, have no choice but to “plan for the worst and hope for the best”. And with the crucial Christmas trading period just around the corner, that’s not a comfortable place to be.