I’ll admit I was something of a doom monger back in early 2008 before the economic storm clouds had even begun to gather.

I’ll admit I was something of a doom monger back in early 2008 before the economic storm clouds had even begun to gather. When frustrated business leaders cautioned that journalists’ obsession with bad news was talking the country into a recession, I’m afraid I would have been counted amongst their number.

I certainly didn’t predict the fall of Lehman Brothers or Northern Rock - my grasp of the murky world of debt swaps and subprime finance is, at best, patchy. But, the journey towards the economic meltdown seemed inevitable when set against the backdrop of rising personal and sovereign debt, the stark decline in manufacturing and an unsustainable housing bubble.

But, in the interests of balance, I’ve resolved to try and take a more positive outlook when it comes to the recovery and seek out good news in amongst a continuing slew of figures and data that are painful reading for anyone in retail. The economic picture remains patchy at best. In fact, one report out today suggested UK growth will be just 0.4% this year. 

But there are more encouraging signs. Figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last week claimed to show the UK was on the brink of a lasting recovery. The findings were made using the OECD’s composite leading indicators (CLIs), which are reported to have a strong reputation for getting this sort of thing right. These figures were out the same week as some more encouraging data from the BRC for March, showing UK retail sales values were up 1.3% on a like-for-like basis from March 2011, although they were against some weak comparisons in the same period last year.

There is still a heavy dose of reality doing the rounds – I don’t think anyone is in any doubt of the on-going challenges the sector faces, including having to refinance $11.2bn (£7.1bn) in syndicated bank debt and bonds by the end of the year. But, we are now entering an extraordinary few months, with Easter just done and the Jubilee and the Olympics ahead. Come the end of the summer, there is good reason to believe the positive news will be easier to spot.

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