Only longer-lasting products offering real value will move shoppers to spend as recession bites.

A year ago not many of us would have dared to mention recession. 12 months on and the world is a different place.

The Prime Minister and his fellow world leaders have admitted the global economy is in decline. So now that we’re officially entering a recession, what’s the plan to get us back out again? And what can we do as some of the biggest businesses in Britain to get us back on the road to recovery?

First of all we need to recognise what’s really going on out there. The downturn in the economy is already having a huge impact on people. On a recent store visit, a customer told me she was cancelling Christmas. People are losing their jobs and homes are being repossessed at a startling rate.

For the first time in a generation, millions of people are living from one pay packet to the next. Our colleagues in retail will be feeling the squeeze.

Even within food, you can see how people are spending less each week as the month goes on. Treats are disappearing and discretionary spend categories are under huge pressure.

So as consumers tighten their belts and rein in their spending, it leaves many retailers facing a grim end to the year. You won’t be surprised to hear me say that with value high on most people’s agendas, retailers that focus on lowering prices will do better than those that don’t. Christmas won’t be cancelled, but parents will be forced to make some tough choices this year.

It also means that people will be looking for products that are more durable, more versatile and less likely to go out of fashion. Take clothing for example: shoppers are rapidly ditching brightly coloured clothing in favour of more muted colours as the credit crunch takes hold. The little black dress is only worth buying if you can wear it more than once.

We also shouldn’t forget that many people will be relying on their flexible friend to see them through the festive season. For them, the real credit crunch will come in January, when they will also see the first winter gas bill land on the doormat. The economy could then enter the second phase of its decline.

But before we all shut up shop and go home, there are some signs of hope on the horizon.

The price of oil is at its lowest level for more than a year, which is good news for both consumers and businesses. As energy costs come down, the cost of delivering goods and services will fall. And with further cuts in the interest rate now on the cards, consumer spending should pick up.

So as we draw towards the end of the year, what will the next 12 months hold?

2009 is going to be one of the toughest ever years in retail, perhaps the worst that many of us have ever seen – but it’s important we start to sew the seeds of recovery as quickly as we can.

Andy Clarke, Retail director, Asda