As Christmas 2012 hoves into view, Retail Week takes a look at forecasts for this festive season

Why are we talking about this now?

Retailers will be keen to capture strong festive spend with consumer conditions still tough and will have to be innovative to gain shoppers in an extremely competitive market.

The collapse of Comet has pulled some Christmas spending in the electricals market forward as shoppers rush for clearance Sale deals.

How valuable will Christmas be this year?

Mintel research shows said the run up to Christmas has started with more of a bang this year with average retail sales growth at 3% for the year, this is expected to be the median forecast for the season.

Verdict forecasts show shoppers are expected to spend £86bn on Christmas this year, up 1% on last year despite having less disposable income. But retail sales volumes are expected to fall by 0.2% overall, driving retailers to discount heavily to boost volumes.

Food sales are expected to increase 2.9% in the last quarter of 2012 against the same period last year although driven largely by food price inflation. Food sales volumes are expected to drop 0.5%.

The picture is more positive for online sales. IMRG and Capgemini’s E-retail Sales Index predicts online spending will hit £4.6bn, 15% up on the same period last year. Mobile is expected to be worth £1bn during the peak fortnight from December 3 to 16.

When will be the busiest points?

There are several crucial shopping periods. IMRG research shows 44% of senior e-commerce experts surveyed think the week beginning December 10 would be their busiest week, 22% said the seven days from December 3 while 22% said from November 26. Etailers expect Mondays December 3 and 10 to be their biggest trading days.

However, food retailers including Asda, Morrisons and M&S are lobbying hard for Government to temporarily relax Sunday trading laws on December 23, the last Sunday before Christmas. The retailers want a repeat of the relaxation seen during the Olympics to take advantage of the rush before the big day as shoppers search for fresh food.

Who is likely to benefit the most?

Verdict said etailers, department stores, supermarkets and discount stores will be key destinations for shoppers as “convenience, competitive pricing and quality products” become the most attractive shopping elements.

Electricals retailers are expected to see tablets and e-readers flying off the shelves but with strong competition prices are expected to be slashed.