After the dog days of August, the sector springs into action again in early September.

After the dog days of August, the sector springs into action again in early September.

The week after next, the City’s scribblers will have plenty to write about again as a raft of reports and updates gets underway.

There will be the BRC sales data, providing a picture of the impact of the August riots and the health of the industry generally, results from grocer Morrisons and updates from Argos-owner Home Retail and electricals giant Dixons.

The slew of data and opinion will be pored over for auguries of how retail is shaping up as the all-important Christmas trading period looms. But the likelihood is that you can guess the main message now: the rest of the year will be little different from what’s gone before and trading will be punishing for many.

Christmas this year is likely to be fought as intensely as any in memory, but will be even more important for those store groups that make their profits in the second half because many will start from a lower sales base than in previous years.

Broker Numis notes that market consensus indicates that most retailers will increase pre-tax profits by more than 5% this year. However, given pressure on discretionary spend and the likelihood that retail sales over the year “will, across the piece, struggle to make progress on 2010”, Numis warns such a profit rise looks over-optimistic and downgrades are likely.

It can probably safely be said that, come Christmas, consumers will spend. But it may also be taken for granted that the rush will be late and spend unequally divided among retailers.

Much of the planning for the Christmas campaigns has already been done, product choices made and tactics decided.

If the current harsh trading climate continues, as looks probable, the survival of some store groups will depend upon ensuring the golden quarter lives up to its name.