Store closures are likely to rise and Wales and the north of England are forecast to be the worst affected areas in the UK.

Up to 74,000 of the 270,000 shops trading in the UK today could shut by 2025, a study for trade body the BRC has indicated.

store decline

In a breakdown of areas that would likely be impacted by closures Wales was forecast to be the worst affected. By 2018 Wales potentially faces the prospect of having 29% fewer shops than it did in 2012.

The North will be the second worst affected region by stores closures – the number of stores in the region forecasted to have decreased 26% by 2018. London is the least susceptible to closures – a 9% decrease looks likely. 

The 2018 forecast, from the Centre for Retail Research, is based on the number of primary retail locations there are in in the UK’s regions such as London’s West End.

The research found that areas with more secondary retail locations would be most susceptible to store closures, which the BRC said would lead to smaller businesses being “disproportionately affected”.

Impact of the living wage

The Centre for Retail Research’s findings were made before the national living wage was unveiled, which will come into effect in April.

The BRC warned that its implementation would most likely exacerbate the number of store closures in some regions.

BRC senior external affairs advisor Bryan Johnston said: “The national living wage will act as a bit of a blunt instrument to retail employees in less affluent areas.

“For London and the Southeast, paying retail staff £9 an hour will fall in line with the living wage being 60% of the average salary by 2020, whereas for Wales and the North this pay increase will be closer to 70% of the average wage.”

Johnston said other factors that would lead to retail job losses and store closures, such as the rise of online retail and automation, would also cause a shift in the types of retail professions that would grow over the next 10 years.

The number of roles for analysts and computer specialists are expected to rise as retailers invest more in online retail and big data alongside roles that offered a bespoke in-store service, such as stylists and personal shoppers.