Coming up in just a few days’ time, Black Friday has once again been hotly anticipated by both retailers and consumers alike.

But with the stats telling a story of expectations waiting to not be met, the last Friday in November will soon be just that: another Friday.

After only a few years in the UK, Black Friday is already in dire need of re-invention. Here are CACI’s four predictions for why Black Friday will be an anticlimax.

1. Black Friday is a flash in the UK pan

Black Friday works in the US because of the Thanksgiving holiday. But here in the UK, people are at work – and this year it does not even coincide with payday.

In 2014, the majority of shoppers were less comfortable financially, as shopping centres had an 11% decrease in the proportion of affluent shoppers. For most of next Friday, large sections of the UK population will be at work and CACI expects a similar shopper profile to that of 2014.

In its current format, Black Friday will not survive for long. Instead, it could gradually merge into a more positive starting signal for the Christmas shopping period. Such a change could also help alleviate the late December ‘standoff’ between retailers and consumers waiting for January Sales.

2. Customers can’t get no satisfaction

Black Friday is not an enjoyable environment to be shopping in. Last year, customers left stores significantly less satisfied than on other peak days during the year.

The number of people who would recommend a shopping destination based on their trip fell as much as 28% compared with regular Christmas shopping figures. Negative experiences like this will invariably lead to customers not returning to a store.

Last year, customers left stores significantly less satisfied than on other peak days during the year

This year, retailers will also adjust their discount tactics after last year’s price cuts across the board. The increase in spending last year was only 10%, lower than the average discount. This time around, retailers know what to expect and will be smarter and target discounts to a smaller range of products, with a strictly analytical view to margin controls.

Shoppers that don’t find discounts on the products they want, however, will leave even less satisfied than last year. Many will feel that the Black Friday hype does not deliver as promised.

3. Confident Brits are more blasé about bargains

Shopper confidence in the UK is at a four-year high. CACI’s Shopper Confidence Index is at 11%, more than three percentage points higher than in the period around last year’s Black Friday.

In the past six months there has been a steady period of growing confidence across all demographic groups in the UK. This is an unusual occurrence, as there is normally a dip in confidence in at least some parts of the population – especially in uncertain economic times and after a new election.

What this means is that shoppers will not have a single-minded, bargain-hunting mentality this Black Friday.

They are, of course, always interested in a good deal, but next week will not be a make-or-break situation for consumers. They are looking forward to Christmas and they will still be confident in their own financial status in the months to come. Retailers, accordingly, may find that their discounts are less attractive than last year and catch fewer bargain-hunting eyes.

4. Click-and-collect will save the day

Last year online delivery let a lot of people down. While lessons have been learnt, this remains the big unknown. Retailers will have scaled up their networks where they can, but many won’t have the infrastructure in place to handle the scale of orders. In turn, consumers who were burnt on delivery last year will stay away.

A click-and-collect shopper is much more valuable than a non-user, spending an average of £112 on their trip versus £62 for a non-click-and-collect user

Those who can convince their consumers to use click-and-collect, however, will not only alleviate the pressure on delivery systems – they will also get valuable consumers straight into their stores. A click-and-collect shopper is much more valuable than a non-user, spending an average of £112 on their trip versus £62 for a non-click-and-collect user.

CACI’s research also shows a positive correlation between click-and-collect use and additional retail spend. Once a customer is in a store, they often want to make the most of their journey and make additional purchases.

As we’re heading for a disappointing Black Friday this year, the ability for retailers to adapt will be key.

By changing their approach to Black Friday – taking it away from a one-day event and on to an integrated online/offline event that lasts longer to kick start the Christmas sales – they can still stop Black Friday from becoming bleak Friday.

  • Alex McCulloch is an associate partner at CACI