Fashion sales have been hit as unusually high autumn temperatures means shoppers have stuck with T-shirts instead of buying sweaters.

Fashion sales have been hit as unusually high autumn temperatures cause as shoppers stick with T-shirts instead of buying sweaters.

Ghosts and ghouls weren’t the only strange thing about last week, certainly not for retailers. Ahead of Halloween, shoppers were browsing for pumpkins, fancy dress, and… sunglasses as the unusually warm autumn weather created a nightmare on the high street. Both Next and Supergroup revealed their own horror stories last week as they slashed profit forecasts in the face of the frightfully warm autumn conditions.

Unseasonable weather has long been retailers’ nemesis, particularly in fashion, but with extreme weather now seemingly becoming the norm, Retail Week looks at strategies to minimise the impact.

Adopt a fast fashion approach

Weather impacts fashion sales

The short lead times that fast fashion retailers work to can offer protection during unseasonable weather.

Inditex-owned Zara, the poster child for fast fashion, can bring product from design to store in just three weeks, giving it the opportunity to put more weather-appropriate product into store during extreme weather.

Adopting that approach requires an overhaul in buying and production for some as it means buying in smaller quantities and often sourcing close to home. However, Kurt Salmon senior manager Stephen Taylor says that as weather patterns become more volatile, more retailers are moving towards this model to offer protection.

“It allows retailers to respond better to how trading is going and obviously the weather is a key thing that impacts trading,” he says.

Zara operates a vertically integrated supply chain. However, Taylor insists that retailers do not need such a drastic overhaul to emulate their fast fashion success. “You just need a reliable supply base that you have a strong relationship with and can secure production on your terms,” he says.

It does mean bringing production closer to home. Morocco, Turkey, Spain and Portugal have become more popular places to source from over the past few years and Taylor says there is a growing impetus to bring production back to the UK. But he acknowledges that there are few UK suppliers that can deal with volume right now.

OC&C partner Tom Gladstone says moving to this model requires investment and says retailers must make a judgement call on whether building such flexibility into their supply chains is worth it.

“If there’s unseasonable weather for a week or two it’s not worth it but when there’s two months of it you’ve got to start looking at it. A year and a half ago we were still experiencing winter weather into May,” he points out.

Gladstone believes that retailers should think about buying more in season. He says that investing more in ‘Open to Buy’ does not necessarily lead to a steep price increase as it should coincide with retailers taking bigger bets on more predictable lines such as denim.

 Rethink the seasonal calendar

Weather impacts fashion sales

The slow start to autumn has led some to claim that fashion retail models which rigidly stick to seasons are outdated.

Many bring their winter woollies into store in late August when people are still topping up their tans and firing up the barbie.

Boohoo co-chief executive Carol Kane told Retail Week  last month that the fashion etailer was unaffected by the warm weather in September because it does not bring in its autumn range until late in the month. “Retailers do it [early] because tradition says so. We wouldn’t sell a lot of coats if we launched at the beginning of September,” she said.

However, Taylor acknowledges that moving the timings of seasons is a “very difficult change to make” as financial planning is based around the timing of Sales.

The out-of-sync fashion seasons are being exacerbated by people buying closer to when they need the product than ever before, according to Next boss Lord Wolfson.

Retailers need to think carefully not just about seasonal timings but what makes up their ranges, says Gladstone. Some retailers are bringing in more transitional products – Next, for example, is buying for four distinct seasons rather than two. However, that pales in comparison with Zara, which constantly brings fresh product into its stores.

Taylor believes fashion retailers should follow suit and have up to 12 distinct ranges a year.

Conversely, SuperGroup has done the opposite and brought perennially popular products such as jogging bottoms, T-shirts and polo shirts into stores all year long. Euan Sutherland, SuperGroup’s new boss, told Retail Week that sales of polo shirts had notched up double-digit growth year-on-year over recent weeks.

Make the most of what you’ve got

Weather impacts fashion sales

Retailers need to react to the weather in their marketing and visual merchandising, says Gladstone. Supermarkets are masters of responding to changes in the weather and fashion retailers should follow suit, he adds.

“We have no idea whether the first barbecue-weather weekend is going to be in late April or in early June but when we do have that great weekend, supermarkets seem to have a military-like plan in place,” says Gladstone.  “When the weather forecast shows sunshine they ramp up the beef burgers and sausages and create space in-store for disposable barbecues.”

Gladstone admits that it is harder to be reactive in fashion because products have longer lead times. But he says retailers have to ensure they have the right stock in the right place in-store.

He adds that retailers can make the most of window displays and visual merchandising. “In fashion, you can’t change your products but you can promote your best-selling products,” he says.

Leverage online

Weather impacts fashion sales

Unsurprisingly, fashion sales growth stalled to just 1% in the 12 weeks ending September 28, but according to Kantar Worldpanel all that growth came from online.

Extreme weather conditions, be they balmy or Baltic, often encourage people to shop online rather than trek to the high street and the channel allows retailers to be more responsive.

Retailers can quickly promote weather-influenced products such as raincoats online and can even target their promotions based on location. For example, shoppers in drizzling Dundee might see coats on a retailer’s homepage, while browsers in sizzling Southend might see bikinis.

Retailers that operate globally online also have an opportunity to push clothing that may be appropriate in other countries, says Taylor.

Redistribute stock

Weather impacts fashion sales

Retailers with a global footprint can also redistribute stock around the world when faced with unseasonable weather.

DIY retailer Kingfisher, which has stores in countries including Russia, Turkey and China, treats its stock as one single pool that it can move across markets to cater for extreme weather.

Moving stock from store to store could be an expensive solution to the problem, admits Taylor. “For mid-market retailers it could wipe out margin but it does give an option to exit stock without going on Sale or promotion,” he says.

Spend more on marketing

Weather impacts fashion sales

Trend-led products can confound weather considerations to some degree, according to Taylor.  By pitching products as trendy ‘must-haves’, retailers can protect sales of certain items.

Taylor points out that oversized coats are fashionable this season and have still been coveted despite the mercury staying up.

He suggests that retailers should invest in making certain products highly desirable.

Be patient

Weather impacts fashion sales

Inevitably, slower autumn sales will mean that retailers are sitting on a larger stockpile than last year. However, like SuperGroup, they should avoid knee-jerk discounting.

The extreme weather means that excess stock can sometimes be a benefit rather than a problem.

Last year, the UK experienced wintry conditions well into May, extending demand for jumpers and coats. It is conceivable the same could happen again next year.

SuperGroup chief financial officer Shaun Wills says: “We still had stock during the cold spring a year or two ago. While everyone had T-shirts in, we were selling jackets. That could still happen.”